Layoff logic - Pace and Cap

10-08-2005, 09:47 PM

Backing a layoff horse is an "iffy" proposition since you are depending upon past performances that are not recent. You have to "fill in the blanks" when considering just WHY the layoff was undertaken and what has the trainer done to get his charge back to the game today. What WAS that horse like, and what WILL it be like today. At Keeneland today (10/08), similar layoff logic in projecting to today's pace totally BOMBED in the 6th (Bwana Charlie) but was successful in the 8th (Host).

Anytime that one is considering a layoff horse it has to be at least 4 or 5 to 1 to make that "iffiness" worthwhile.

I want to ask the group what guidelines they use to consider these horses.

Here are some of mine: 1) has done well after a layoff before 2) blade runners (turfers) do better than dirt horses 3) it helps that the trainer is a one of the better ones and 4) sprinters don't do as well as routers.

RichieP · 10-08-2005, 10:09 PM

[QUOTE=TaWee]I want to ask the group what guidelines they use to consider these horses.

Mine is kinda simple:
PRICE

oh yea and Jeff Mullins in So Cal He just tinkles on me all the time and finally I have worked a plan up for dealing with him

Rich

shoeless · 10-08-2005, 10:15 PM

The only trouble with your logic is Bawana Charlie had done nothing in his last 2 races to warrant going back to a race from Oct 30 last year.Meanwhile Host hadnt run since last Feb but was coming off a big race that Mr.Light won setting a track record.Besides that anything trained by Todd Pletcher can win off of any kind of layoff. Shoeless

10-08-2005, 10:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shoeless

The only trouble with your logic is Bawana Charlie had done nothing in his last 2 races to warrant going back to a race from Oct 30 last year.Meanwhile Host hadnt run since last Feb but was coming off a big race that Mr.Light won setting a track record.Besides that anything trained by Todd Pletcher can win off of any kind of layoff. Shoeless

tactful as ALWAYS, but Keeneland is all about speed and this one (in spite of its going wide) still had very fast times to the second call. MANY horses win with the same profile, but hey I did not bet that one: it was only an observation, the 4 was a very logical choice...couldn't see the 8 as it was LATE

10-08-2005, 11:00 PM

this is relevant to considering that layoff

http://horseracing.about.com/b/a/127446.htm

so one has to consider it a possiblity especially coming in ranked 4th in total energy

shoeless · 10-08-2005, 11:30 PM

This is just my opinion nothing written in stone,Im here to learn not to argue.Shoeless

Fast4522 · 10-09-2005, 07:05 AM

Hey Shoe,
Its all about credentials in graded stakes races, #6 was lacking other than running from the barn without racing in 100+ days. I did give equal time and did post its past performance lines but of the three past performance screenshots I posted #6 did not make the cut and would not look good to anyone who knows how to read a daily racing form. We use tools and I am not telling anyone only use this tool only, but I am saying do not just use software only so you forget how to use and read the racing form any more.

shoeless · 10-09-2005, 08:13 AM

Fast, Good advice.I went to a manual input program because I feel by punching in the data myself it allows me to concentrate better.I probably wouldnt have picked up about the rider switch otherwise.To me it was a definite plus to be switching from a 13% percent rider to the 2nd best rider on that circuit behind Pat Day of course.Basically Im using the readouts to get me to the top 3 contenders and then go from there.I like the forum Binder has setup for us here allowing us to express our ideas even if they dont 100% agree with Doc's way of thinking.Also kudos to you for getting that going in the first place it really got some good response going.Binder I think was glad as well because maybe now I will stop complaining to him that hardly anyone ever responds they just look at the posts. Shoeless

Binder · 10-09-2005, 08:27 AM

Steve and Jeff
Thanks , The best part of VDC is that I get to see in action all
the things Doc wrote about in the follow up
we all worked the same race our own way. And almost all of us got the heathly $17.00 winner. Steve, if you hand me a racing form ,or when I look at the Past performances you posted,I'm lost. Jeff- I totally agree with you
When I type in the running lines to make my Philly Park models
I am amazed at things I see that I never noticed looking at the Adjusted ,
Normalized lines in Val 3
For me it will always be all about the follow ups and doing it Doc's way
But thanks to VDC I can see by example the good and the no so good

Good Skill
Binder

Binder · 10-09-2005, 08:58 AM

Great points Rich and Tim
for me is where they rank on BL/BL and VDC

10-08-2005, 09:47 PM	#1
TaWee Guest Posts: n/a	Layoff logic Backing a layoff horse is an "iffy" proposition since you are depending upon past performances that are not recent. You have to "fill in the blanks" when considering just WHY the layoff was undertaken and what has the trainer done to get his charge back to the game today. What WAS that horse like, and what WILL it be like today. At Keeneland today (10/08), similar layoff logic in projecting to today's pace totally BOMBED in the 6th (Bwana Charlie) but was successful in the 8th (Host). Anytime that one is considering a layoff horse it has to be at least 4 or 5 to 1 to make that "iffiness" worthwhile. I want to ask the group what guidelines they use to consider these horses. Here are some of mine: 1) has done well after a layoff before 2) blade runners (turfers) do better than dirt horses 3) it helps that the trainer is a one of the better ones and 4) sprinters don't do as well as routers.

10-08-2005, 11:00 PM	#5
TaWee Guest Posts: n/a	stat this is relevant to considering that layoff http://horseracing.about.com/b/a/127446.htm so one has to consider it a possiblity especially coming in ranked 4th in total energy Last edited by TaWee; 10-08-2005 at 11:03 PM.

10-09-2005, 07:05 AM	#7
Fast4522 Former member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Gun Country Posts: 363	Credentials Hey Shoe, Its all about credentials in graded stakes races, #6 was lacking other than running from the barn without racing in 100+ days. I did give equal time and did post its past performance lines but of the three past performance screenshots I posted #6 did not make the cut and would not look good to anyone who knows how to read a daily racing form. We use tools and I am not telling anyone only use this tool only, but I am saying do not just use software only so you forget how to use and read the racing form any more.

10-09-2005, 08:27 AM	#9
Binder Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Northern NJ Posts: 674	The way to go Steve and Jeff Thanks , The best part of VDC is that I get to see in action all the things Doc wrote about in the follow up we all worked the same race our own way. And almost all of us got the heathly $17.00 winner. Steve, if you hand me a racing form ,or when I look at the Past performances you posted,I'm lost. Jeff- I totally agree with you When I type in the running lines to make my Philly Park models I am amazed at things I see that I never noticed looking at the Adjusted , Normalized lines in Val 3 For me it will always be all about the follow ups and doing it Doc's way But thanks to VDC I can see by example the good and the no so good Good Skill Binder

10-09-2005, 08:58 AM	#10
Binder Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Northern NJ Posts: 674	from Follow up 82 Great points Rich and Tim for me is where they rank on BL/BL and VDC Attached Images Last edited by Binder; 10-09-2005 at 09:04 AM.

10-08-2005, 10:09 PM	#2
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	[QUOTE=TaWee]I want to ask the group what guidelines they use to consider these horses. Mine is kinda simple: PRICE oh yea and Jeff Mullins in So Cal He just tinkles on me all the time and finally I have worked a plan up for dealing with him Rich

10-08-2005, 10:15 PM	#3
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,640	The only trouble with your logic is Bawana Charlie had done nothing in his last 2 races to warrant going back to a race from Oct 30 last year.Meanwhile Host hadnt run since last Feb but was coming off a big race that Mr.Light won setting a track record.Besides that anything trained by Todd Pletcher can win off of any kind of layoff. Shoeless

10-08-2005, 11:30 PM	#6
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,640	This is just my opinion nothing written in stone,Im here to learn not to argue.Shoeless

10-09-2005, 08:13 AM	#8
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,640	Fast, Good advice.I went to a manual input program because I feel by punching in the data myself it allows me to concentrate better.I probably wouldnt have picked up about the rider switch otherwise.To me it was a definite plus to be switching from a 13% percent rider to the 2nd best rider on that circuit behind Pat Day of course.Basically Im using the readouts to get me to the top 3 contenders and then go from there.I like the forum Binder has setup for us here allowing us to express our ideas even if they dont 100% agree with Doc's way of thinking.Also kudos to you for getting that going in the first place it really got some good response going.Binder I think was glad as well because maybe now I will stop complaining to him that hardly anyone ever responds they just look at the posts. Shoeless