Betting Guideline

[Bill V.]

I want to give a thank you to Richie
who has really helped me
I have tied in Rich's suggestion to the use of the exacta key
box bet
and I mentioned to Rich this tidbit from Follow Up
# 83

The Key box has been a big help to me
With my paceline contender selection methods
I do run second often
Rather than making place bets
The keying of one of my win bets
with the other win bet, the counter energy horse,
the favorite, or the # 1 Long Shot Detector horse( not available on RDSS)
has been working very well

Todays first at Philly was a good example

My win bets were the 4 and the 8
My key was the 4
I keyed the 4 with the big favorite # 7
and the 8
The seven got bet down to 3/5 and ran down my 4 horse
late but the 4 held on for place
The ex paid $21.00
again nothing great but the 4 nearly won
and I am feeling the benifit of not falling too far behind
as Doc writes about in the Follow Up

Thanks
Bill V

[RichieP]

Bill
I just need to point out that Howard's prescribed method for exacta wagers is to box 3.

The "key box" and a derivative is something I looked into and described a bit when on the Black Magic Wizards Forum. It was part of a wager method I called the "Poor Man" method and it enabled folks to have a chance at nice score by enabling BOTH win bets and exacta plays for VERY small outlay of cash per race. The feedback from members there was most positive as they were looking for ways to getting in the mix with SMALLER bankrolls.

Also just want to post that outside of a race that I post here in advance where I often feel the need to BET I am NOT wagering exactas at all.It really is NOT for me. I am a win bettor (1 horse or 2 NO rules).

Bill:
you remind me of Doc. The BOTH of you think VERY creatively when it comes to wagering. Show bets, place bets, little tick exacta bets etc. Hat told me Doc bet like that all the time and it would drive folks in Pirco nuts! Little bit of that rubbed off on you I see!!

Keep on rocking!

"I bet him because of the corollaries" - Aline Best (R.I.P)

[Tim Y]

Like everything else, there are no rules.

Wagering is only limited to the creativity of taking advantage of what is offered. There are no set ways to attack a race: only what the odds make potentially lucrative and one never knows, beforehand, just what those differing opportunities may be.

[RichieP]

Hey Bill:
Continuing with your threads title here are some words from the Doc about short field betting right from the followups:

LESS than 7 horses:
Longshots should be ranked no worse than 3rd or tied for 3rd with the favorite left IN.

AFTER hides the longshot should be ranked 2nd or tied for 2nd.

If the above is not present PASS the race.

ok

[RichieP]

Bill:
From Followup #87 this is Doc talking to us. I KNOW this is KEY to your success boss.

With tough times upon us I thought it would be appropriate to post it

[Bill V.]

Rich

Actually Doc does recommend a Key box
This is from follow up # 82
This is why when you brought it to my attention
It hit me
When I was with Doc he brought it up too

and very interesting he wrote what you see here
on a napkin when we went to lunch

[Bill V.]

This betting guideline was not directed at you
Because you get things and have the ability to win your way and I am here to say
I have seen you win
I am trying to help people
You say there are no rules
But Myself and others here need guidelines and
words to follow. Please note the first line of the
yellow box highlighted area If I were to make a rule....
Please let each of us work in our own way
I feel its important to show winnings ways that are
from the words of Doc Sartin
Thanks
Bill

[tfm]

While there may be no rules in the mind of some, as we bet we develop methods of play based on experience. For example, I find myself playing longshots that seem to want to run 2nd (more often than than win). I have two possible ways of tackling this:

1) bet win and place --- I tried this for a while but found that I lost value in the long run

2) bet the horse to win and save with the horse 2nd in an exacta -- either under a horse I also like or, more often than not, under the favorite.

For example, today at TP, Sir Allahad, in race 5, was on my watch list. The horse was stretching from a sprint to a route but was 15:1 and well worth a bet. So, I bet to win and an exacta under the strong favorite (Maker's horse). $2 win and place gets me back $12.60 (for place). $2 win and $2 exacta gets me back $62.40. Not bad, considering the chalk was 8:5.

I find there's incredible value when you're able to narrow down the contenders.

In the cases where my opinion of the long shot (or otherwise) is very strong, and I have an opinion on another horse, I bet the long shot to win and box the exacta.

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by tfm

In the cases where my opinion of the long shot (or otherwise) is very strong, and I have an opinion on another horse, I bet the long shot to win and box the exacta.

This is pretty much what I would use the key exacta box for John.
==============================================

Bill I did NOT know that Doc had APPROVED this key box exacta man! I am dead serious. Amazing how THOROUGH you know the man.

Hey thank you for the talks the last 2 days boss! You help me greatly and in MY book YOU will always be #

I told you an hour ago on the phone that I had NOT bet any races today cause I had a bad attitude round lunchtime.

I took a LOT from your "lemon seed" thread. Most important were your words that Doc told you privately you seem to lose FOCUS at some point during the 20 race cycle. While some folks (as is their right) focused on you using multiple screen names I FOCUSED on the MESSAGE you were relaying to those that chose to hear the message. There is SERIOUS money to be picked up with the Lemon

You told me an hour ago on the phone to just relax and if something good hit me to BET. I liked the TONE of your advice Bill. It was friendly but FIRM. Win/lose/draw Howard Sartin would be PROUD of you and thats no bull****

OK so I load up some races NOT thinking that I would be betting today cause of what we spoke about privately. I work a Tup race and after doing my thing I picked 2 horse to win bet in my mind and watched one of them win like a champ at 5/2. I was kinda pissed because as we talked about with TODAYS economy racing NOW more than ever can provide INCOME if we work and FOCUS.

I was gonna shut it down and head down to hang with Mom and watch an old movie or something when i saw Sunland Park was running

I said in that Sunland Stakes thread down in the RDSS forum a week ago that THIS track is VERY good (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4904 post #3) because:
1) full fields
2) TM download adj numbers for there and the "feeder tracks" are VERY solid

The 10th race (stakes) was next up but after looking at the field I PASSED because there was complete chaos with sprints/routes/turf etc. Great for someone else but not ME when i want to make money.

I turn the page there and see Sunland has one race left the 11th. it is a nice 8f claiming with a giant field so I work the race following YOUR and Doc's guidelines using the Val4 mode in RDSS.

Attached is my BLBL, ONLY bet of today and the result:
odds at 2 mtp:
#1 - 4/1
#9 - 6/1
#2 - 9/1

There were NO hides so I settled on win bets on the #1 and #2 (tier 3 LONGSHOTS have been MY forte for YEARS when i used the Validator with Mr. Binder in jersey!)

Here is what happened my friend. THANK YOU

As one can see this was my ONLY bet of the day. Nice.

I will say this one time:
ANYONE just coming on board here using RDSS/Val4 should SERIOUSLY consider reading the Followups in the reading area and THEN reading Bill V posts on implementing all of what you read.

Mr. Admin you rock!

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by RichieP

This is pretty much what I would use the key exacta box for John.
==============================================

Bill I did NOT know that Doc had APPROVED this key box exacta man! I am dead serious. Amazing how THOROUGH you know the man.

Hey thank you for the talks the last 2 days boss! You help me greatly and in MY book YOU will always be #

I told you an hour ago on the phone that I had NOT bet any races today cause I had a bad attitude round lunchtime.

I took a LOT from your "lemon seed" thread. Most important were your words that Doc told you privately you seem to lose FOCUS at some point during the 20 race cycle. While some folks (as is their right) focused on you using multiple screen names I FOCUSED on the MESSAGE you were relaying to those that chose to hear the message. There is SERIOUS money to be picked up with the Lemon

You told me an hour ago on the phone to just relax and if something good hit me to BET. I liked the TONE of your advice Bill. It was friendly but FIRM. Win/lose/draw Howard Sartin would be PROUD of you and thats no bull****

OK so I load up some races NOT thinking that I would be betting today cause of what we spoke about privately. I work a Tup race and after doing my thing I picked 2 horse to win bet in my mind and watched one of them win like a champ at 5/2. I was kinda pissed because as we talked about with TODAYS economy racing NOW more than ever can provide INCOME if we work and FOCUS.

I was gonna shut it down and head down to hang with Mom and watch an old movie or something when i saw Sunland Park was running

I said in that Sunland Stakes thread down in the RDSS forum a week ago that THIS track is VERY good (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4904 post #3) because:
1) full fields
2) TM download adj numbers for there and the "feeder tracks" are VERY solid

The 10th race (stakes) was next up but after looking at the field I PASSED because there was complete chaos with sprints/routes/turf etc. Great for someone else but not ME when i want to make money.

I turn the page there and see Sunland has one race left the 11th. it is a nice 8f claiming with a giant field so I work the race following YOUR and Doc's guidelines using the Val4 mode in RDSS.

Attached is my BLBL, ONLY bet of today and the result:
odds at 2 mtp:
#1 - 4/1
#9 - 6/1
#2 - 9/1

There were NO hides so I settled on win bets on the #1 and #2 (tier 3 LONGSHOTS have been MY forte for YEARS when i used the Validator with Mr. Binder in jersey!)

Here is what happened my friend. THANK YOU

As one can see this was my ONLY bet of the day. Nice.

I will say this one time:
ANYONE just coming on board here using RDSS/Val4 should SERIOUSLY consider reading the Followups in the reading area and THEN reading Bill V posts on implementing all of what you read.

Mr. Admin you rock!

Bill
If this will help folks here are the complete pps with my lines marked. As you see it is simply best of last 3 comparable (routes) with NO issues boss.
NO off tracks,long layoffs etc etc. Matter of fact THIS race reminds me of Marty Dahl ("Shipper" here at P&C) article in the Followup where he hammers races that "make sense" with NO issues!

One of the keys especially in TODAYS racing is PATIENCE to WAIT til the stars align if you will. There is NO great calls made or sophisticated pace analysis here. You DO have to except and BELIEVE Doc and Bill V's advice to wager on tier THREE longshots regardless of corollaries(again this is ALL laid out in the followups dealing with advanced Methodology programs using TM download 80-88) .

** With Validator mode Doc and Bill V. advise NOT to use lines where the beaten lengths finish exceed 7.5 lengths. it is because the Validator mode assigns different values for beaten lengths at various calls **