Bad Contenders = Bad Readouts Philly 9th - Pace and Cap

shoeless · 12-18-2005, 05:01 PM

In the ninth at Philly today it was a 5.5 fur race clm 4000N2Y.When I put in the pacelines I entered one for the 7 Fuzzy Abby who in his last race got out in 45.1 for a race clm 4000N1Y.He didnt win that race so why jump him up in conditions.I put the horse in anyway and he came out 1st in SCBL which was doing well today and came up strong as well in the other readouts as well.I had the 6 2nd but he was 3.95 lenghts behind the 7 at SCBL.Most of you probably would have had him anyway as the 7 went off 2 to 1 and the 6 went off 8 to 1 and won.I unfortunately didnt and keyed the 7 in ex's.But by putting this horse in there it screwed up everything else.I really think you have to look closely at the conditions of the race before entering horses who dont belong.

Binder · 12-18-2005, 06:17 PM

Hi Jeff
For me it always comes down to 1 thing
you are so good to me 'I tell you this with tons of respect and as Fast pointed out sometimes I type mean when you both know I'm not

I have problems when I start to handicap to finely
All it does is force me to look at two horses
One with the proper readouts and one with good readouts that's
usually the favorite

I didn't like the 7 because the line I used had a wild early stick
on the Late /Early I liked the 4 6 and 11

My model, and the problem that hurts me of thinking the 4 must be good ,he has the good readouts and he is bet almost cost me this one

I took a chance with the 6 as the 11 post bothered me in a 5.5 race

It worked out as the 7 went out early with that 29.8 readout on the Early / Late with the 4 The 4 took care of the 7 who just finished the race and the 6 came late and got the 4 at 7.5 / 1

what this all means is If you bet your horse and the publics horse
there is always the chance the programs choice will get you
I have to go with my records horse and the best overlay of the top 3 or 4
BL/BL

Here are my Pace lines and next I will show my BL/BL

Binder · 12-18-2005, 06:18 PM

7 was a throw out off a crazy stick early

shoeless · 12-18-2005, 10:21 PM

Bill,Good job on that one.I didnt come out with a good rating on the 4 I took his last race 15 days ago instead of his 3rd 305 days back.I cant see going back that far when you have a more recent race to choose from.But hey you had it and I didnt and that's the name of the game.Jeff

Binder · 12-18-2005, 11:43 PM

Here is the Past performance screen for the 4 horse

I used line 3 Jeff used line 1
this horse faded in the stretch after taking the lead from the 7
finished 2nd in a photo
Lots of In the money efforts for this one

Jeff don't forget I have no thoughts of exactas or trifectas
when I pick my lines so I pick my lines differently
to me if the 4 ends up second or last it doesn't matter
The 7 was a no bet the 4 went off at 2/1 it was a near hide at post
the 4 6 and 11 were the only horses to Binder method
I went 4 6 its all I know

Binder · 12-19-2005, 05:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Binder

Here is the Past performance screen for the 4 horse

I used line 3 Jeff used line 1
this horse faded in the stretch after taking the lead from the 7
finished 2nd in a photo
Lots of In the money efforts for this one

Jeff don't forget I have no thoughts of exactas or trifectas
when I pick my lines so I pick my lines differently
....

Just too strange, I just happened to be listening/watching Doc video set and he said that he hates showing pace lines
Thats were the arguments start
I only added my pace lines to show how I got my top 5
This race was not typical
I usually would have gone 4/11
I went down to the 6 only because the 7 was wild early and the 11
was too far outside for me in a cheap $4000 claiming race

Actually this was my only bet of the day, As I was holiday shopping
I got home for race 8 but got shut out

shoeless · 12-19-2005, 06:50 AM

No arguments just differences of the way we pick pacelines.No matter if I play exotics or not if I can pick a more recent paceline I will do it.The line you picked was also one from an off track but it worked.I was just commenting that the 4 didnt show up in my readouts at all off that last race.Jeff

Binder · 12-19-2005, 04:15 PM

I used the wrong line
Like I tell Fast all the time its amazing I find my way home
after work

A much better handicapper would not get these horses
It worked this time

My comment about arguments was based on what Doc said, Not at you
Pace line selection is a very important part of what we do. I hope my
ignorence is not hurting you

Good skill Jeff
Bill

shoeless · 12-19-2005, 07:35 PM

Bill,You didnt use the wrong line or myself as well it all depends on the what the person feels is right.As I told you before your better off following Doc's instructions then incoroporating all of this other stuff into it.Your much better with these programs that I so Im the ignorant one not you.Jeff

socantra · 12-20-2005, 11:16 AM

That's a really difficult decision, and nobody made a wrong call. I don't think 306 days is too far to go back at all. It's the 4 horse's third race back after a layoff, with two good races since the layoff. It should be expected to improve.

On the other hand, its racing in much cheaper company, an indication the trainer thinks the horse may not be what it was before the layoff.

I'm not sure what I would have done. Any of the last 3 lines would have been quite reasonable. I probably would have gone for the 2nd line back, a 5.5f race, which would have kept him in contention, but looked less dominant.

What a fun game,
Dick...

12-18-2005, 05:01 PM	#1
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,640	Bad Contenders = Bad Readouts Philly 9th In the ninth at Philly today it was a 5.5 fur race clm 4000N2Y.When I put in the pacelines I entered one for the 7 Fuzzy Abby who in his last race got out in 45.1 for a race clm 4000N1Y.He didnt win that race so why jump him up in conditions.I put the horse in anyway and he came out 1st in SCBL which was doing well today and came up strong as well in the other readouts as well.I had the 6 2nd but he was 3.95 lenghts behind the 7 at SCBL.Most of you probably would have had him anyway as the 7 went off 2 to 1 and the 6 went off 8 to 1 and won.I unfortunately didnt and keyed the 7 in ex's.But by putting this horse in there it screwed up everything else.I really think you have to look closely at the conditions of the race before entering horses who dont belong.

12-18-2005, 06:17 PM	#2
Binder Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Northern NJ Posts: 674	At some point Hi Jeff For me it always comes down to 1 thing you are so good to me 'I tell you this with tons of respect and as Fast pointed out sometimes I type mean when you both know I'm not I have problems when I start to handicap to finely All it does is force me to look at two horses One with the proper readouts and one with good readouts that's usually the favorite I didn't like the 7 because the line I used had a wild early stick on the Late /Early I liked the 4 6 and 11 My model, and the problem that hurts me of thinking the 4 must be good ,he has the good readouts and he is bet almost cost me this one I took a chance with the 6 as the 11 post bothered me in a 5.5 race It worked out as the 7 went out early with that 29.8 readout on the Early / Late with the 4 The 4 took care of the 7 who just finished the race and the 6 came late and got the 4 at 7.5 / 1 what this all means is If you bet your horse and the publics horse there is always the chance the programs choice will get you I have to go with my records horse and the best overlay of the top 3 or 4 BL/BL Here are my Pace lines and next I will show my BL/BL Attached Images Last edited by Binder; 12-18-2005 at 06:28 PM.

12-18-2005, 06:18 PM	#3
Binder Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Northern NJ Posts: 674	and the BLBL 7 was a throw out off a crazy stick early Attached Images

12-18-2005, 11:43 PM	#5
Binder Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Northern NJ Posts: 674	Quick look Here is the Past performance screen for the 4 horse I used line 3 Jeff used line 1 this horse faded in the stretch after taking the lead from the 7 finished 2nd in a photo Lots of In the money efforts for this one Jeff don't forget I have no thoughts of exactas or trifectas when I pick my lines so I pick my lines differently to me if the 4 ends up second or last it doesn't matter The 7 was a no bet the 4 went off at 2/1 it was a near hide at post the 4 6 and 11 were the only horses to Binder method I went 4 6 its all I know Attached Images Last edited by Binder; 12-18-2005 at 11:55 PM.

12-19-2005, 04:15 PM	#8
Binder Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Northern NJ Posts: 674	I can sure see why I used the wrong line Like I tell Fast all the time its amazing I find my way home after work A much better handicapper would not get these horses It worked this time My comment about arguments was based on what Doc said, Not at you Pace line selection is a very important part of what we do. I hope my ignorence is not hurting you Good skill Jeff Bill

12-18-2005, 10:21 PM	#4
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,640	Bill,Good job on that one.I didnt come out with a good rating on the 4 I took his last race 15 days ago instead of his 3rd 305 days back.I cant see going back that far when you have a more recent race to choose from.But hey you had it and I didnt and that's the name of the game.Jeff

12-19-2005, 06:50 AM	#7
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,640	No arguments just differences of the way we pick pacelines.No matter if I play exotics or not if I can pick a more recent paceline I will do it.The line you picked was also one from an off track but it worked.I was just commenting that the 4 didnt show up in my readouts at all off that last race.Jeff

12-19-2005, 07:35 PM	#9
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,640	Bill,You didnt use the wrong line or myself as well it all depends on the what the person feels is right.As I told you before your better off following Doc's instructions then incoroporating all of this other stuff into it.Your much better with these programs that I so Im the ignorant one not you.Jeff Last edited by shoeless; 12-19-2005 at 07:44 PM.

12-20-2005, 11:16 AM	#10
socantra Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Norman, OK Posts: 387	Hard Call That's a really difficult decision, and nobody made a wrong call. I don't think 306 days is too far to go back at all. It's the 4 horse's third race back after a layoff, with two good races since the layoff. It should be expected to improve. On the other hand, its racing in much cheaper company, an indication the trainer thinks the horse may not be what it was before the layoff. I'm not sure what I would have done. Any of the last 3 lines would have been quite reasonable. I probably would have gone for the 2nd line back, a 5.5f race, which would have kept him in contention, but looked less dominant. What a fun game, Dick...