An alternative when numbers fail - Pace and Cap

chris · 09-30-2009, 03:41 PM

COMPLETED: 52625595572924 BEL #1 $1 Trifecta 1,3,8,WT,6,WT,1,2,3,4,8 $ 12.00 $ 109.75 + $ 97.75
COMPLETED: 44871693236437 BEL #1 $1 Exacta 1,WT,3,6,8 $ 3.00 $ 42.50 + $ 39.50
COMPLETED: 31773288988478 BEL #1 $1 Exacta 3,6,8,WT,1 $ 3.00 $ 0.00 - $ 3.00

By no means am I presenting this as a preferred approach, but occasionally I'll attack a race using a (my) comprehensive overview of the competitors. The race in question, Belmont 1, 7F Turf, allowance, Non winners other than... led off today's card. My first run through, which is visual, notes pace preferences, age; younger rather older, lightly raced rather settled, in other words horses with a future, and my favorite, odds of the horses - in this case fillies - from their last representative race. I'm particularly opened to finding a horse that I can build a trifecta around; when I don't find one, I don't bet a trifecta. Not fond of boxes, stay with keys or partials wheels.

The filly to make the keystone of this trifecta, seemed obvious to me, though I miss them as often as find them. In this instance the keystone would support the trifecta from the 2nd hole. Her credentials were obvious, but something else was undeniable as well - she had lost 5 times at this condition, and today she was coming off a two month layoff. However her three turf sprints were all good.

She obliged, and held on for 2nd by a head and one of my other choices beat her at 7-1. It took a while to get here but this is the point I want to make. If you can identify the 2nd place horse you can put a horse or two over her/him, that may not have the numbers, but have merit nonetheless. In this case the winner was a lightly raced, 1 for 2 on the turf, and her last race, a winning one, was accomplished with little crowd support; she was sent off at better than 10 to 1; an overachiever.

A post script; she was ranked/tiered fourth or fifth depending on how many horses you entered, I entered four horses. Now I could have won as much by betting win, but my opinion and first impression was that I had found the 2nd place horse, and now all I needed was to put the KINDS horse that could beat her on top.

Not fool proof but works often enough to be profitable, and it's an approach that isn't well understood.

Regards,
Chris

chris · 10-01-2009, 11:13 PM

Sometimes the third place horse is the foundation for a trifecta; it happens. But you have to be looking for it.

COMPLETED: 03852975058157 PEN #8 $0.5 Trifecta 10,WT,8,12,WT,1 $ 1.00 $ 235.55 + $ 234.55
COMPLETED: 72412958982816 PEN #8 $1 Trifecta 10,WT,3,8,12,WT,1 $ 3.00 $ 471.10 + $ 468.10
COMPLETED: 22882611140015 PEN #8 $1 Trifecta 3,8,WT,10,12,WT,1 $ 4.00 $ 0.00 - $ 4.00
COMPLETED: 78386558299044 PEN #8 $2 WP 10 $ 4.00 $ 25.20 + $ 21.20

Regards,
Chris

10-01-2009, 11:13 PM	#2
chris Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Richfield, MN Posts: 182	A post script Sometimes the third place horse is the foundation for a trifecta; it happens. But you have to be looking for it. COMPLETED: 03852975058157 PEN #8 $0.5 Trifecta 10,WT,8,12,WT,1 $ 1.00 $ 235.55 + $ 234.55 COMPLETED: 72412958982816 PEN #8 $1 Trifecta 10,WT,3,8,12,WT,1 $ 3.00 $ 471.10 + $ 468.10 COMPLETED: 22882611140015 PEN #8 $1 Trifecta 3,8,WT,10,12,WT,1 $ 4.00 $ 0.00 - $ 4.00 COMPLETED: 78386558299044 PEN #8 $2 WP 10 $ 4.00 $ 25.20 + $ 21.20 Regards, Chris

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chris Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Richfield, MN Posts: 182	An alternative when numbers fail COMPLETED: 52625595572924 BEL #1 $1 Trifecta 1,3,8,WT,6,WT,1,2,3,4,8 $ 12.00 $ 109.75 + $ 97.75 COMPLETED: 44871693236437 BEL #1 $1 Exacta 1,WT,3,6,8 $ 3.00 $ 42.50 + $ 39.50 COMPLETED: 31773288988478 BEL #1 $1 Exacta 3,6,8,WT,1 $ 3.00 $ 0.00 - $ 3.00 By no means am I presenting this as a preferred approach, but occasionally I'll attack a race using a (my) comprehensive overview of the competitors. The race in question, Belmont 1, 7F Turf, allowance, Non winners other than... led off today's card. My first run through, which is visual, notes pace preferences, age; younger rather older, lightly raced rather settled, in other words horses with a future, and my favorite, odds of the horses - in this case fillies - from their last representative race. I'm particularly opened to finding a horse that I can build a trifecta around; when I don't find one, I don't bet a trifecta. Not fond of boxes, stay with keys or partials wheels. The filly to make the keystone of this trifecta, seemed obvious to me, though I miss them as often as find them. In this instance the keystone would support the trifecta from the 2nd hole. Her credentials were obvious, but something else was undeniable as well - she had lost 5 times at this condition, and today she was coming off a two month layoff. However her three turf sprints were all good. She obliged, and held on for 2nd by a head and one of my other choices beat her at 7-1. It took a while to get here but this is the point I want to make. If you can identify the 2nd place horse you can put a horse or two over her/him, that may not have the numbers, but have merit nonetheless. In this case the winner was a lightly raced, 1 for 2 on the turf, and her last race, a winning one, was accomplished with little crowd support; she was sent off at better than 10 to 1; an overachiever. A post script; she was ranked/tiered fourth or fifth depending on how many horses you entered, I entered four horses. Now I could have won as much by betting win, but my opinion and first impression was that I had found the 2nd place horse, and now all I needed was to put the KINDS horse that could beat her on top. Not fool proof but works often enough to be profitable, and it's an approach that isn't well understood. Regards, Chris