Value betting - Corrolary support - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 03-08-2010, 07:52 AM

This was a horse and race I showed Barb yesterday around noon.

The race was the 11th at Gulfstream and I laid out all the reasons why I thought the #6 Al Nasr Dream had a great chance to win at a big price.

While he did NOT win he placed at over 14/1 and keyed an exacta EASILY gettable by using best of last 3 and key boxing him around your other tiered contenders. The exacta paid over 200 clams for a deuce.

WHY him?
1) Off a 100 day layoff - right away most probably value built in as these guys scare off bettors yes even on grass events.

2) The last time he came back to the races off a similar 100 day layoff was his FIFTH race back and it was a turf route WIN at Tampa Bay. Right away happy thoughts as he can WIN off layoff of today's length.

3) Workouts - LOOK at his works coming to today! 4f breeze 5 days ago but the work 11 days back got me a going

8f work on the deep Calder surface. This trainer at least to me wants this horse ready to run TODAY. I dont see too many mile works do you?

4) Readout strength - Tiered very highly and has 1 and 2 ranks in many key categories such as - Total Energy - Fw - FX - Prime line score - V/dc - Entropy - Sup and Fractals

Just wanted to throw this out there and even though he couldn't last to the wire I feel this was a great value bet.

Here are his pp's,the result chart and my Bl/Bl before hides

RichieP · 03-08-2010, 07:55 AM

Here are the full pps for all the horses with the middle tab set on Primary

RichieP · 03-08-2010, 07:56 AM

cont

RichieP · 03-08-2010, 07:58 AM

..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-lEsXVAjas&feature=fvw

alydar_ David · 03-08-2010, 11:36 AM

Nice analysis, Richie. And it sure makes it easy to follow along when you insert all those screen shots.

I also played this race and used corollary support, but of a different kind.

You and I have different contenders and pacelines (what else is new :>)

Based on my BL/BL screen, #7 Don'twait Toolong looks like a clear winner with a 5 point BL/BL spread over the second choice.

However, one of the first things I noticed was courtesy of Bill Varone. #1 Blazen is a "Binder Improver" -- He is ranked fourth on the BL/BL screen, but he is listed as "2" under VDC. So, he goes fourth to second. That's the Binder Improver.

The corollary support I used for this was my Gulfstream Park model.

According to my model for this type of race: 100% of all winners are ranked first or second in VDC and SPN. Only two horses fit that here: #7 and #1.

Incidental support: 100% of winners have an ESP of "S" or "L". The E/L range is from -6.0 to -29.6.

RichieP · 03-08-2010, 04:16 PM

David
That is excellent work with your models matey!

I see a few times now from your posts that you do NOT depend on one factor but look for 2 or possibly more that corroborate one another with your model reads. That is big

gary w. · 03-08-2010, 04:38 PM

Those were really informative posts, at least for myself. Two different ways of doing the work and both of them profitable. It was very interesting to see how Richie picked those pacelines and how Alydar used his track model to make a profit.............good stuff...............thanks!

pktruckdriver · 03-08-2010, 08:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gary w.

Those were really informative posts, at least for myself. Two different ways of doing the work and both of them profitable. It was very interesting to see how Richie picked those pacelines and how Alydar used his track model to make a profit.............good stuff...............thanks!

Ditto

03-08-2010, 07:55 AM	#2
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	Here are the full pps for all the horses with the middle tab set on Primary Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

03-08-2010, 07:56 AM	#3
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	cont Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

03-08-2010, 07:58 AM	#4
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-lEsXVAjas&feature=fvw Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

03-08-2010, 11:36 AM	#5
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Nice analysis, Richie. And it sure makes it easy to follow along when you insert all those screen shots. I also played this race and used corollary support, but of a different kind. You and I have different contenders and pacelines (what else is new :>) Based on my BL/BL screen, #7 Don'twait Toolong looks like a clear winner with a 5 point BL/BL spread over the second choice. However, one of the first things I noticed was courtesy of Bill Varone. #1 Blazen is a "Binder Improver" -- He is ranked fourth on the BL/BL screen, but he is listed as "2" under VDC. So, he goes fourth to second. That's the Binder Improver. The corollary support I used for this was my Gulfstream Park model. According to my model for this type of race: 100% of all winners are ranked first or second in VDC and SPN. Only two horses fit that here: #7 and #1. Incidental support: 100% of winners have an ESP of "S" or "L". The E/L range is from -6.0 to -29.6. Attached Images

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03-08-2010, 07:52 AM	#1
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	Value betting - Corrolary support This was a horse and race I showed Barb yesterday around noon. The race was the 11th at Gulfstream and I laid out all the reasons why I thought the #6 Al Nasr Dream had a great chance to win at a big price. While he did NOT win he placed at over 14/1 and keyed an exacta EASILY gettable by using best of last 3 and key boxing him around your other tiered contenders. The exacta paid over 200 clams for a deuce. WHY him? 1) Off a 100 day layoff - right away most probably value built in as these guys scare off bettors yes even on grass events. 2) The last time he came back to the races off a similar 100 day layoff was his FIFTH race back and it was a turf route WIN at Tampa Bay. Right away happy thoughts as he can WIN off layoff of today's length. 3) Workouts - LOOK at his works coming to today! 4f breeze 5 days ago but the work 11 days back got me a going 8f work on the deep Calder surface. This trainer at least to me wants this horse ready to run TODAY. I dont see too many mile works do you? 4) Readout strength - Tiered very highly and has 1 and 2 ranks in many key categories such as - Total Energy - Fw - FX - Prime line score - V/dc - Entropy - Sup and Fractals Just wanted to throw this out there and even though he couldn't last to the wire I feel this was a great value bet. Here are his pp's,the result chart and my Bl/Bl before hides Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!" Last edited by RichieP; 03-08-2010 at 07:59 AM.

03-08-2010, 04:16 PM	#6
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	David That is excellent work with your models matey! I see a few times now from your posts that you do NOT depend on one factor but look for 2 or possibly more that corroborate one another with your model reads. That is big __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

03-08-2010, 04:38 PM	#7
gary w. AlwNW1X Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 9	Those were really informative posts, at least for myself. Two different ways of doing the work and both of them profitable. It was very interesting to see how Richie picked those pacelines and how Alydar used his track model to make a profit.............good stuff...............thanks!