SAR 3rd race today

[alydar_ David]

Here's how I use my models to handicap. Note, this is only one way, not necessarily the best way.

First, I see if can get the race down to five contenders. In this race I could not. In my opinion all seven horses are contenders. Here they are and the paceline I chose is indicated.

[alydar_ David]

The remainder of the field:

[alydar_ David]

Here is the Primary screen. Looking at Total Energy, Perceptor Total and Prinary LS I'll eliminate the worst ranked horses until I get it down to five horses.

#2 is the worst in all three categories. Out she goes. #1 is ranked fifth in TE, sixth in Per and LS. Out she goes. I'm down to five horses.

[alydar_ David]

Here is the BL/BL screen:

[alydar_ David]

My model indicates 100% of the winners are ranked first or second in TE and TS.

Total Energy = #6 #4

True Speed = #4 #3

At this point I am very interested in betting #4.

Let's check %Med:
#5 is close, but doesn't quite fit
#7 doesn't fit

Let's check E/L:
#7 is way too late
#3 is just outside the range, but I wouldn't toss her on this alone

In summary, unless the odds are prohibitive I'm going to bet #4 to win. The second win bet will be determined by the post time odds.

That's how I do it.

[alydar_ David]

Here's the Energy screen:

[alydar_ David]

At two minutes to post:

#6 7-1
#4 3-1
#5 9-1
#3 8-1
#7 Even money

#6 became an obvious choice for the second win bet. I don't know what happened to #4 as I can't see Saratoga races. Assuming nothing unusual happened then the model will now indicate 100% of the SAR 7f winners were either first or second in Total Energy. That certainly narrows it down.

[Bill V.]

Thank you David
Excellent work It was fun rooting the 6 home
Thanks for the great race work up

Bill

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by alydar_David

Let's check %Med:
#5 is close, but doesn't quite fit
#7 doesn't fit

Let's check E/L:
#7 is way too late
#3 is just outside the range, but I wouldn't toss her on this alone

Nice job!

Personally, I agree with all your line selections EXCEPT for the 7 horse.
Personally, I would have eliminated the horse for not having a line in the last 90 days at a similar distance AND surface.

You eliminated the 7 horse because its’ median energy “didn’t fit” your model and also because its’ E/L was “way too late”. The reason for that median energy and E/L comes from your use of a turf race. I think if you had to use the 7 horse, using line 6 would give you a different median energy and E/L number. Not that you would play the 7 horse, but it would give you a better perspective on the horse given that today’s race is on the dirt.

[alydar_ David]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

Nice job!

Personally, I agree with all your line selections EXCEPT for the 7 horse.
Personally, I would have eliminated the horse for not having a line in the last 90 days at a similar distance AND surface.

You eliminated the 7 horse because its’ median energy “didn’t fit” your model and also because its’ E/L was “way too late”. The reason for that median energy and E/L comes from your use of a turf race. I think if you had to use the 7 horse, using line 6 would give you a different median energy and E/L number. Not that you would play the 7 horse, but it would give you a better perspective on the horse given that today’s race is on the dirt.

Thanks Bill & FTL.

FTL,

No argument with any of the above. #7 was a marginal contender as far as I was concerned. I know putting in a dirt race would be more in line with today's race. However, I did not think she'd run to those lines. Ergo, they would not be representative of what I expected of the horse today. To tell you the truth I never even bothered to check those dirt pacelines and I still haven't. I consider that moot.

I'm also fully cognizant of the difference in energy distribution between dirt and turf (usually, but not always, that's one way you can see if a horse going from dirt to turf or vice-versa for the first time will be able to handle the surface change). I'm mentioning this for the benefit of others not familiar with this technique. I know you're hip to this concept, but this may be an eye opener for some newbies.

To clarify, I did not eliminate #7 because of her E/L or median percentage. In general I don't like to bet the fifth ranked horse on BL/BL unless it matches the winning model or is a monster price. #7 as the favorite came nowhere near matching those requisites.

Also, I place more weight on the primary model winning factors than E/L or %median. Sure, the later are useful but they are not the Holy Grail. For example, at one track Fx and TT were winning every sprint in sight. I talked myself out of several lucrative wagers because horses that were tops in those two categories didn't fall within the winning E/L and %Med parameters. I consider E/L icing on the cake, but not the cake itself. Percentage median is more reliable, but still more of an dessert topping than the actual cake itself.

I also suspected #7 would be a vulnerable favorite at best (if not a false favorite). I looked forward to betting against her.