A Look @ Derby Using some Matching Principles

[Bill Lyster]

I am putting this in the matching section because the idea came from Jim Bradshaws ideas of positions and lengths gained. Use it any way you want. I hope it sparks ideas that we can build on.

I reviewed all contenders races and noted in each race if the horse gained or lost position between the four calls. The point values were one point for each point of call where the horse gained a position or minus one if it lost position. The most points a horse could get would be three (3) if it gained position in each successive call.

Next I looked at the positional change of each horse at each of the calls. I recorded the net improvement or loss of position from first call to finish.

Then I recorded the number of net lengths gained or lost.

I summed each column of information and took the average. I also ran the info for all races AFTER a horse broke its maiden.

I noted and took the average of the 2nd call positions and the average number of lengths gained or lost for each horse. So, for example, Dialed In's average position at the 2nd call in races after its maiden races was 5.7 and the horse made up an average of 6.53 lengths from that position. Animal Kingdom had an average position of 3.5 (closer to the lead than Dialed In by more than 2 positions; he makes up 4.60 lengths from that position.

I was predisposed to believe that this race was OTE and so the numbers that I calculated are probably skewed to that type of race. There is no time recording done as part of this exercise. So I guess if the race looked to run Early you would have to look at or develope different analysis factors.

When I sorted by the sum of Call moves and Position moves the top three were Dialed In, Animal Kingdom and Nehro, 8th, 1st, 2nd respectively. the other two sorts had the winner no worse than third.

Need comments and hope for some original thoughts out of any of you.


Regards,

Bill