New Pace Follow-Up Video

[SilentRun]

Ted,

With reference to the "New Pace" follow-Up video (42.00 - 44.00):
There is an improvement suggestion that impacts the determination of the
low reg speed horses only as follows:

Eliminate those horses whereby their speed ratings are amoungst the 4 lowest
and they raced on on off-track surface. If todays track conditon is fast and there are 3 horses with the 3 lowest speed ratings from say SY, GD then it is ok to eliminate those horses. He goes on to state, "It doesn't matter if todays race is on an off-track because you are only tossing low speed ratings ".
But this implies you should just toss up to the 4 lowest speed ratings regradless
of the surface. So it is not clear to me if you should use the surface or not ?

In the video example (LRL02) there was originally 10 pacelines and 3 horses that met the conditions as described above. They were eliminated leaving 7 pacelines and thus the selection criteria shifted to 2nd best & 3rd worst.

According to Dave's narration this results in an improvement.

This does not include eliminating any other surface such as TURF it is strictly the SURFACE CONDITION only.

Is the above included in E/L 2.0 ? If not then I think that if it results in an improvement then it should be considered as an enhancement.

This is my interpetation so it would interesting to hear other viewpoints.

Ernie

[Ted Craven]

Ernie,

I feel a bit like I'm getting overwhelmed with rules You will note that Dave S has posted his updated simplified approach to NewPace, giving me something to think about, and as well we're trying out several alternate ratings for the range measurement (Adj SR, Total Energy, Perceptor Total). As well, I am setting up some user controlled filters for days back and surface condition (e.g. stick within 90 days, or 'n' days - skip off surfaces, etc). I am updating the display of data, and also letting the user override whatever initial pick the software may come up with.

There will be several more rounds of this module, and some folks may choose to get more detailed than others. Permit me to deliver the next round (last Alpha release before Beta 1, which you are signed up for), then we can see how more detailed we can get or need to get.

Thanks for the suggestion! I'll check the follow up video.

yours,

Ted

[SilentRun]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Ernie,

IThere will be several more rounds of this module, and some folks may choose to get more detailed than others. Permit me to deliver the next round (last Alpha release before Beta 1, which you are signed up for), then we can see how more detailed we can get or need to get.

Thanks for the suggestion! I'll check the follow up video.

yours,

Ted

You are correct at one point you have to freeze all changes otherwise you
will continuously have a moving target date. I should have stated my post more explicitly
but I meant this would be nice to have, down the road, if (after investigation) it would improve the results.

Ernie

[Dave Schwartz]

Sorry for the late response- been watching my son graduate from USC (Magna Cum Laude, for that matter).

I always move towards simplification. So, let me simplify as much as possible.

1. I toss any race in the low 4 for an off-track. (Even if today is an off-track.)

2. I do not toss races for wrong surface, although I can certainly build a case for it.

These two rules are both designed to give the horse the benefit of the doubt without splitting hairs too fine.