DMR 7/21 Race 1 EL 2.0 Question

[Ted Craven]

This screen example of an updated EL 2.0 appeared in another thread and prompted the question in post #2



The discussion is resumed here.

Ted

[Bill V.]

Hi Ted I have a question about the 7 horse
The 83 speed ratings came in 2 maiden races 1 was a 4.0 furlong race
the other had a 26 Track varient
is there a plan to maybe filter such races as a 4.0 distance

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Hi Ted I have a question about the 7 horse
The 83 speed ratings came in 2 maiden races 1 was a 4.0 furlong race
the other had a 26 Track varient
is there a plan to maybe filter such races as a 4.0 distance

Bill you are so right - the hi range of SR (84) indeed comes from a 4f race, but also a 6f race over today's track last year - admittedly both maiden races. Setting aside whether this is a weak approach for identifying the most this horse is capable of today, you question: will we be able to filter out certain lines (from either the hi or low ends of the range), e.g. too old, off surface, bad distance, bad class (e.g. Maiden) clearly stopped trying, etc, etc - the answer is YES, and hopefully before the final RDSS 2.0. The warning though would be to avoid being too-clever-by-half in dismissing ratings based on what we think we know, compared to employing a consistent automated (i.e. bulk) approach.

However, I will never force the user to accept what the software thinks. At least one should expect to be able to override which Hi SR and which Low SR is used in the EL 2.0 / NewPace formula. Hopefully, we'll be able to configure the software to eliminate types of lines from the SR range determining criteria.

From a normal perspective, the #7 is a cheap(er) Early horse, especially compared to the #3.









Maybe some SR's used for a given horse are weak and we can do better here and there by overriding from our handicapping knowledge, but then the proposition is that an automated consistent approach produces consistent results, and keeps you in the same when the longer prices come home. For example, in this race, if #7 is a suspicious Win contender, what about an ITM contender?

Ted