The Art Of Watching Races - Pace and Cap

Fast4522 · 02-19-2006, 08:08 PM

For those who rely on just Sartin to keep you in the black I say good luck, you are going to need it. Often also called Trip Handicapping, there is real skill that one should learn that puts things together nicely. To be able to watch and remember by name, a runner who is all done because in its last race it stopped reaching. Explained to me many times by a trainer I got to know and learn from, reaching seen by a runner whose front legs are observed to be reaching competitively. Conversely it can viewed and remembered when a runner stops reaching abruptly while being competitive, if viewed properly you know that was that runners last race. Most runners only have three good races in them before they require some rest and or conditioning to resume being competitive. Another thing to notice is if a horse is pissed off, they do not run well if they are pissed off. Using a pissed off horse because of wager capping will help the chalk immensely. Another thing to notice is in post parade is there a runner throwing its head about, if you wager capped one of these into your parlays your also shoveling s**t against the tide and asking the chalk to slap you. There are many tells that could be talked about here if people have the inclination to post something, so feel free to continue this thread.

tompkins · 02-19-2006, 08:50 PM

I have witnessed many a runner (one of the best examples was Unbridled's Blue Grass before the Derby) NOT reaching one day, then when the pace scenario and form cycle was right, they stretch right out. Observing only works when one notes what is positive for ONE horse. There are no generalities. Horses are not generic creatures.

Races are mutually exclusive of one another, trends aren't

RichieP · 02-20-2006, 07:13 AM

[QUOTE=Fast4522]For those who rely on just Sartin to keep you in the black I say good luck, you are going to need it.

So the $ 18,355.00 profit( based on Brisbet and Meadowlands bet card) I have made in the last 20 months is just one LONG lucky streak I guess.

I personally feel the new changes are a nightmare. This is for the way I worked races in the past and apply to nobody but ME. I will adapt or leave racing. Doesn't get much simpler than that.

Feelin lucky today ??

Richie

Fast4522 · 02-20-2006, 08:54 AM

Details not per docs commandments will draw opposing views naturally which in turn become thread cappers. No one else will post for this thread now out of fear, and so the story goes for posting. Bees that ways most of the time.

RichieP · 02-20-2006, 10:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fast4522

Details not per docs commandments will draw opposing views naturally which in turn become thread cappers. No one else will post for this thread now out of fear, and so the story goes for posting. Bees that ways most of the time.

Not sure I understand. Are you saying because I posted something no one is gonna reply now? please help me understand ok?

Am I missing something here? I certainly hope to God nobody is afraid of me. Jesu Christo all I have ever tried to do is share what knowledge I have of some of the workings of the software I use.

Things NOT having to do with Doc are beautiful. Matter of fact the software I have used for the last 2 days and made over a couple of hundred bucks with is NOT Sartin.

What DOES bother me is when Sartin is put down.You know why? Cause the man is NOT here to defend himself. Same **** with Guy. Now people want to bash him. it's bull****. Your comment " for those who rely JUST on Sartin to make a buck good luck" is to ME a put down. Why not mention K-19? Pace Appraiser? "Proggie"? what do these programs "see" the warmups that Sartin does not.

You keep saying that you have nothing against Sartin yet u tell people that your goal is to "shoot holes" in Doc's stuff Steve. What does that tell me? you have a hard on for anything Sartin. Which is fine with me.I am not married to the guy nor is his the only software that I can use to make money with. Just be upfront about it.

Bottom line is we are all horseplayers betting money. Whatever software gets you there is the one to be using whether it's Ainsle or Ziemba.

no one bashes your software nor tries to poke holes in it.

Richie

Fast4522 · 02-20-2006, 10:27 AM

I was not referring to software as the tool we use. Just how the tool is used, by the way I use sartin programs as a tool and a way I view the races as a vantage point. Fear (Richie) no way, by no means did I mean to imply that, but to post different and draw negitave reaction yes. The math in the sartin programs I understand completely but I am not ruled by it and am open to notice things others miss that the math can not encompass.

tompkins · 02-20-2006, 10:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fast4522

Details not per docs commandments will draw opposing views naturally which in turn become thread cappers. No one else will post for this thread now out of fear, and so the story goes for posting.

surely you jest

cprescigno · 02-21-2006, 02:26 PM

My two cents.
I don't have a problem using the Sartin program. At least I don't have a problem usng Val3. I started using Spec but didn't like some of the results I was getting there. If there is a better prorgam out there that will get more consistent results I would like to hear about it. Actually I don't want to hear about it, would prefer seeing it in action here on the board. I'm doing pretty well with Val3. Since the trackmaster changes I do have to be more careful with race selection and paceline selection but I'm stll getting winners regularly. Here's a race I did this morning and sent it out to a friend of mine on this board. We have been concerned about the trackmaster changes and the effects of those changes. My contention is if you stick to the basics, adhere to the guidlines and apply some common sense you still can use this program and achieve a nice profit.
Here's the third race at Tampa Bay that I did at 9 AM this morning. It was right on the money. I ran three pacelines for the 9 horse and he came up top five in all three, and at the top of two of them.
The 9 Won paying $11.20 with a $30 9-5 Exacta. A simple race, nothing difficult, pretty straight forward pacelines. An easy trip to the Window to collect.

tompkins · 02-21-2006, 03:12 PM

refreshing to see someone go back a few lines. THAT horse DID run that race. Question always remains is THAT the horse performance we will see today.

admin · 02-21-2006, 05:35 PM

Hi Charlie
I will answer your Email Here here if you don't mind
Yes I do hate the bickering ,As hard as
I try to avoid it I fall into trouble. There are plenty of people planting land mines on this board. I and my great friends get trapped because we look to this board to win and learn and to talk to others, In the hope that we can get some of the love we try to give out
I saw it coming this time but I figured that the original poster
would have left use by now. He will come on and give some wild reply about math But In truth he in his own words just wants to drill holes in the methodology. I sure can't ban him or delete his opinions
I feel the best thing for a sartin methodology site to do with these types is ignore them. I like him personally , I have been met him and his wife and they are good people Trouble is his ideas are not what mine are and if I listened to his idea what a website should be I would just as easily shut down and post on PaceAdvantage.
Anyway great post about race 3 from Tampa
I agree and am very happy for you

02-19-2006, 08:08 PM	#1
Fast4522 Former member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Gun Country Posts: 363	The Art Of Watching Races For those who rely on just Sartin to keep you in the black I say good luck, you are going to need it. Often also called Trip Handicapping, there is real skill that one should learn that puts things together nicely. To be able to watch and remember by name, a runner who is all done because in its last race it stopped reaching. Explained to me many times by a trainer I got to know and learn from, reaching seen by a runner whose front legs are observed to be reaching competitively. Conversely it can viewed and remembered when a runner stops reaching abruptly while being competitive, if viewed properly you know that was that runners last race. Most runners only have three good races in them before they require some rest and or conditioning to resume being competitive. Another thing to notice is if a horse is pissed off, they do not run well if they are pissed off. Using a pissed off horse because of wager capping will help the chalk immensely. Another thing to notice is in post parade is there a runner throwing its head about, if you wager capped one of these into your parlays your also shoveling s**t against the tide and asking the chalk to slap you. There are many tells that could be talked about here if people have the inclination to post something, so feel free to continue this thread.

02-19-2006, 08:50 PM	#2
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	I have witnessed many a runner (one of the best examples was Unbridled's Blue Grass before the Derby) NOT reaching one day, then when the pace scenario and form cycle was right, they stretch right out. Observing only works when one notes what is positive for ONE horse. There are no generalities. Horses are not generic creatures. Races are mutually exclusive of one another, trends aren't __________________ velocititian

02-21-2006, 02:26 PM	#8
cprescigno Spec Rookie Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 258	My two cents. I don't have a problem using the Sartin program. At least I don't have a problem usng Val3. I started using Spec but didn't like some of the results I was getting there. If there is a better prorgam out there that will get more consistent results I would like to hear about it. Actually I don't want to hear about it, would prefer seeing it in action here on the board. I'm doing pretty well with Val3. Since the trackmaster changes I do have to be more careful with race selection and paceline selection but I'm stll getting winners regularly. Here's a race I did this morning and sent it out to a friend of mine on this board. We have been concerned about the trackmaster changes and the effects of those changes. My contention is if you stick to the basics, adhere to the guidlines and apply some common sense you still can use this program and achieve a nice profit. Here's the third race at Tampa Bay that I did at 9 AM this morning. It was right on the money. I ran three pacelines for the 9 horse and he came up top five in all three, and at the top of two of them. The 9 Won paying $11.20 with a $30 9-5 Exacta. A simple race, nothing difficult, pretty straight forward pacelines. An easy trip to the Window to collect. Attached Images

02-21-2006, 03:12 PM	#9
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	refreshing to see someone go back a few lines. THAT horse DID run that race. Question always remains is THAT the horse performance we will see today. __________________ velocititian

02-20-2006, 07:13 AM	#3
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	[QUOTE=Fast4522]For those who rely on just Sartin to keep you in the black I say good luck, you are going to need it. So the $ 18,355.00 profit( based on Brisbet and Meadowlands bet card) I have made in the last 20 months is just one LONG lucky streak I guess. I personally feel the new changes are a nightmare. This is for the way I worked races in the past and apply to nobody but ME. I will adapt or leave racing. Doesn't get much simpler than that. Feelin lucky today ?? Richie

02-20-2006, 08:54 AM	#4
Fast4522 Former member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Gun Country Posts: 363	Details not per docs commandments will draw opposing views naturally which in turn become thread cappers. No one else will post for this thread now out of fear, and so the story goes for posting. Bees that ways most of the time.

02-20-2006, 10:27 AM	#6
Fast4522 Former member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Gun Country Posts: 363	I was not referring to software as the tool we use. Just how the tool is used, by the way I use sartin programs as a tool and a way I view the races as a vantage point. Fear (Richie) no way, by no means did I mean to imply that, but to post different and draw negitave reaction yes. The math in the sartin programs I understand completely but I am not ruled by it and am open to notice things others miss that the math can not encompass.

02-21-2006, 05:35 PM	#10
admin Administrator Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,643	Hi Charlie I will answer your Email Here here if you don't mind Yes I do hate the bickering ,As hard as I try to avoid it I fall into trouble. There are plenty of people planting land mines on this board. I and my great friends get trapped because we look to this board to win and learn and to talk to others, In the hope that we can get some of the love we try to give out I saw it coming this time but I figured that the original poster would have left use by now. He will come on and give some wild reply about math But In truth he in his own words just wants to drill holes in the methodology. I sure can't ban him or delete his opinions I feel the best thing for a sartin methodology site to do with these types is ignore them. I like him personally , I have been met him and his wife and they are good people Trouble is his ideas are not what mine are and if I listened to his idea what a website should be I would just as easily shut down and post on PaceAdvantage. Anyway great post about race 3 from Tampa I agree and am very happy for you