Penn National, 14 Dec 2011 - Pace and Cap

Seven Furlongs · 12-14-2011, 06:06 PM

My first go at this, so it may incite a few laughs etc. I did my best to try and approach this from the Match-Up point of view. Any errors are entirely my own and not based on the method. Some of the projected pace numbers do not project final time.

Here goes:

Race 1: 3, 5 - projected pace circa 47.4,1:13.4/1:41.4
Race 2: 10, 7 -projected first fractions 22.1, 45.3
Race 3: 2,4, 5 - projected first fractions 22.2, 46.1
Race 4: 3,5,7, 10 -difficult to pin down a few horses. 22.3,45.1
Race 5: 3,5 - projected pace circa 42.1, 48.2, 1:13.4, 1:40.4
Race 6: 1,3 - projected pace circa 23.3, 48.3, 1:13.4, 1:41
Race 7: pass
Race 8: 5, 7 - #3 to set the pace and then be passed, at least I hope. Projected pace circa 24, 48, 1:13…
Race 9: pass
Race 10: pass

Good luck and good skill to anyone working Penn National tonight.

Seven Furlongs · 12-16-2011, 07:00 PM

Many favourites of those races that I handicapped correctly won, so it was a less than prosperous evening at Penn National. Oh well.

mikesal57 · 12-17-2011, 09:41 AM

ZZ...Do you believe your "projections" are correct?

Seven Furlongs · 12-17-2011, 05:02 PM

No, they were off. Still trying to refine the process - paceless races seem to be a bit of a thorn in my side.

12-14-2011, 06:06 PM	#1
Seven Furlongs Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 115	Penn National, 14 Dec 2011 My first go at this, so it may incite a few laughs etc. I did my best to try and approach this from the Match-Up point of view. Any errors are entirely my own and not based on the method. Some of the projected pace numbers do not project final time. Here goes: Race 1: 3, 5 - projected pace circa 47.4,1:13.4/1:41.4 Race 2: 10, 7 -projected first fractions 22.1, 45.3 Race 3: 2,4, 5 - projected first fractions 22.2, 46.1 Race 4: 3,5,7, 10 -difficult to pin down a few horses. 22.3,45.1 Race 5: 3,5 - projected pace circa 42.1, 48.2, 1:13.4, 1:40.4 Race 6: 1,3 - projected pace circa 23.3, 48.3, 1:13.4, 1:41 Race 7: pass Race 8: 5, 7 - #3 to set the pace and then be passed, at least I hope. Projected pace circa 24, 48, 1:13… Race 9: pass Race 10: pass Good luck and good skill to anyone working Penn National tonight.

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12-16-2011, 07:00 PM	#2
Seven Furlongs Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 115	Many favourites of those races that I handicapped correctly won, so it was a less than prosperous evening at Penn National. Oh well.

12-17-2011, 09:41 AM	#3
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	ZZ...Do you believe your "projections" are correct? __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

12-17-2011, 05:02 PM	#4
Seven Furlongs Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 115	No, they were off. Still trying to refine the process - paceless races seem to be a bit of a thorn in my side.