Comparable Lines Study

[DaveEdwards]

I did a quick google search but didn't uncover anything, but apologies if this is going over old ground.

I'm interested in canvassing the opinions of anyone who has actually monitored the outcome of paceline selection at different distances ie (5f race & used 5.5f line or 6f line etc).

I am thinking along the lines of recording the actual outcome of a race compared to the Computed Beaten Lengths on the Segments sheet on RDSS as the way of identifying whether or not the varying similar distances are truly comparable for the Best of the Last 3 approach to paceline selection.

My query here is two-fold:

1) Has anyone tried this or perhaps a different approach and did you find the exercise useful?
2) How far down the results would yield useful data in your opinion?

• Win only, WPS or even further down the field?

Thanks.

[Bill V.]

Hi Dave

I don't know if this is any help to you but here is my Parx
Track profile for the month of February

At Parx all 4 distance are close in the readouts
and you better be up close if you want to win
I'm sorry I have no data for the 1st call BL . I thought I didn't need it
I read that is was important but I ignored it, Big mistake t
I started watching it, Its going to be in my profile from now on

These are the winners readouts from each days result chart
NON MAIDEN races only - all class levels

Hope you get some help with your question

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Hi Dave

I don't know if this is any help to you but here is my Parx
Track profile for the month of February

At Parx all 4 distance are close in the readouts
and you better be up close if you want to win
I'm sorry I have no data for the 1st call BL . I thought I didn't need it
I read that is was important but I ignored it, Big mistake t
I started watching it, Its going to be in my profile from now on

These are the winners readouts from each days result chart
NON MAIDEN races only - all class levels

Hope you get some help with your question
Attachment 26389

Morning Bill
If I am seeing your data right in over 80 races at the 5.5-7f distances the e/l differences from the result charts are +9, +9, +8 and +10. That is amazingly tight , I have never seen that before especially over 4 different distances! wow

Dave
my only feedback on distance of lines:
1) I was "aware" when I used a 5f line in races over 6f
2) I was "aware" that using 7f lines in shorter sprints was going to produce an inflated EPR rating
3) 8.2 and 8.3f adjusted speed ratings are lower than reality

[Bill V.]

Good morning Rich

These numbers are all averages They are from the same distances but
all classes are used
I have 3 yo state bred fillies and the top older horses mixed in ,I did no class separations
The EPR numbers are more consistent, The LPR number have a wider
variation
Probably later in the year when the good sprinters have established there class levels and compete against each other more often, and more routers drop into the 6.5 and 7.0 distance races, the numbers will spread out from the 6 and 5.5 distances



Bill

[Bill V.]

Hi Jim

I do have a route profile and a decision model going
But They have not been running many races at the 8.3, 8.5 and 9.0 furlongs
Most of the routes this early in the year are miles I have 33
non maiden mile races

[mikesal57]

Bill...

One more step can make a world of difference....

split it down by sex and class.....

FYI....

Take your 5.5 profile...

Take these examples.....

1st call pos

1
8
3
4
2
7
1
3
____

Total 29
races 8
avg pos 3.6

OK..now tell me is 5.5 early or sustained ???

[Bill V.]

Hi Mike
"If If s and cans were pots and pans the world would be a kitchen"
Hat said The race starts when the gate pops
It would be so much easier to comment if you posted this
POSITION Calls

 1  1   1   1   E
 8  4   3   1  S
 3   2   1  1  EP
 4   1  1  1  EP
 2   1  1  1  EP
 7   5  3   1  S
 1   1  1   1  E
 3   2  1   1  Ep

Is 5.5 Early or OTE
I would say it favors E and EP runners
Is this what I am suppose to say ?
GS
Bill

[gl45]

Originally Posted by DaveEdwards

I did a quick google search but didn't uncover anything, but apologies if this is going over old ground.

I'm interested in canvassing the opinions of anyone who has actually monitored the outcome of paceline selection at different distances ie (5f race & used 5.5f line or 6f line etc).

I am thinking along the lines of recording the actual outcome of a race compared to the Computed Beaten Lengths on the Segments sheet on RDSS as the way of identifying whether or not the varying similar distances are truly comparable for the Best of the Last 3 approach to paceline selection.

My query here is two-fold:

1) Has anyone tried this or perhaps a different approach and did you find the exercise useful?
2) How far down the results would yield useful data in your opinion?

• Win only, WPS or even further down the field?

Thanks.

DE,
2010 MNR cheap claimers. you can filter anyway you like.
not much difference from 2011 except in 2011 winner paid $3 less on average

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Hi Jim

I do have a route profile and a decision model going
But They have not been running many races at the 8.3, 8.5 and 9.0 furlongs
Most of the routes this early in the year are miles I have 33
non maiden mile races

Attachment 26390

Bill, i noticed that in post 2 of this thread that your E/L info did not line up with the average E and L info. IF E = 89 and L = 80, shouldn't the E/L be about 9?

I noticed a change in your second post when you included the longer races, but still not all E/L line up. Do you have separate files for the info.

Just noted this in case you handicap with incorrect E/L info??

Bill

[Bill V.]

Yes the numbers in post # 2 are wrong
There is a glitch in my spread sheet. Some distances are calling
late numbers on the E/L read out plus numbers. I had it set up
so that when I entered a epr number and then a lpr number the difference would
auto fill but I messed it up. I didn't notice it at first I probably missed a few when I went back to corrected the races with
the mistakes. I gave up on the auto fill and just enter the numbers myself
Also, These are the real TPR numbers that are rounded up
The numbers are a little different on RDSS and they are in 3 digit format
example EPR 90.5 on RDSS TPR could be 90 or 91 on the Phase 1 program
I use to enter from the result charts

GS
Bill