PEN 8th 1.5.13

[For The Lead]

The race is a $5,000 NW3L, STATE BRED race.

Take a look at the field if you have the file. There is a horse in here that is 1 for 24. Another horse is 2 for 40. Just look over the field. While you are looking it over you will find a horse that is 2 for 5. It is 2 for 5 and it is now 5 years old. Does something seem amiss to you? How come a 5 year old has just 5 races? I mean, I know it just turned 5 a couple of days ago, but nevertheless, like I said, there is a horse in here that has 40 races and it is 6 years old.

The horse I'm talking about is the #6 horse. The PP's for this horse are below. It had it's first race 487 days ago, so it was late making its' first start at the age of 3 and half years old. This in itself tells me the horse may have had some physical problems and that is the reason it got to the races late. Then, after a dismal first start, it was off for 122 days. When it came back at the same class, it was ready to run, going wire to wire. Just 15 days later against NW2L for $5,000 it showed the same early form and won again. Now, something happened that caused the horse to be off 307 days. Again, we can only assume some type of injury was the reason for this excessive time off. This can be the only conclusion. Why else would you take a horse out of training when it has had 2 wins from just 3 starts? When the horse came back again, they brought it back at PRX for $7,500 NW3L. I consider PRX a step "up" from PEN. The thing to look at in this return race is the beaten lengths at each call. Notice they are greater and greater as the race progresses. This is nothing new for this horse, nor would it be anything new for any horse that wants to be on the lead. So what this means is, in its' return race, the horse couldn't break on or with the leaders and the jockey didn't push the horse once that happened because it didn't matter. So now they take the horse back to PEN and drop it down to $5,000 NW3L STATE BRED race. This is a "drop" going from PRX to PEN, a "drop" from $7,500 to $5,000 and a "drop" from an open race to a State Bred race. That's "3" "drops"! Now look at the huge improvement. The horse fights for the lead at the first call....fights on to the second call where it is 2nd by a head and then backs up. When you combine all I just told you, you have to come to the conclusion that this horse is ready to run a good race. Today it is back in the same $5,000 NW3L STATE BRED race. And the last line is the line you want to use. It doesn't matter that it backed up in its' last race and will not show well in the third fraction.....what we want to know is, can it make the lead today. If it can, everything else will fall into place. So along with the #6 horse's PP's I have attached the "segments screen".




One last thing. When we handicap a race, all we have to go on are the PP's. We have to evaluate them the way we see them. Sometimes things don't always work out the way we see them. In this case...the #6 got bumped at the start, taking away any chance of making the lead. Just to show you that there is always a surprise in horse racing, this dedicated front runner came from well off the pace to win....much to my surprise!!

By the way, with a 10/1 ML, this horse paid $73.80!!! And right off a good last line. A "(+)" line.

In this case, "the numbers" CAN'T explain the reason the horse won, not even after the fact. If you don't have horse racing knowledge, this is a play you are going to miss.

[cody]

On 1-5-13 8th race tampa the 3 horse and 6 horse give me all sorts of trouble.Do I use the top line for the 3 even though he lost by 10,and doesnt run this way all the time,if I use the 3rd back he drops down on blbl.Now the 6 this horse likes to run on the lead,his last line same class was bad,trainer gives him a little time I chose to leave it out,the 6 won at 27.40,this is not about winning or losing this race,did I make the right decion and leave the 6 out,if I use his 3rd back he,s 3rd on blbl,Ted,Bill,FTL or anyone else.

Thanks
Cody

[Bill V.]

Hi Cody

My thoughts .. Just looking at the 6 horse . Its a NTL Early

Its a E7. It will try for the lead in every race.
Now if you do a positional ESP notation to all
the horses in the race who else is a Early horse ?
I will let you do this step
The comment line for horse 6 last line says
chased faded, Line 1 was just not this 6 horses day
In that match up it used way too much energy
early ( Not its typical pattern).


Here are the last line for every horse in the race
on the segments screen who owns the first fraction?, its horse 6


Here is the chart for the race
Look at the 6, nearly wire to wire
the race comment says slow pace headed
In Saturdays Match up it got the easy lead it needs
The question becomes was the last line a true representation of the horses ability in todays match up
or was line 3 / line 2 is non comparable turf

[For The Lead]

First, a really good explanation Bill.
Second, Cody, you should pay attention to what Bill V. said. It is very worthwhile.

I didn't download TAM for the 5th, so I am just going to address the #6 horse here. Here is the #6 horse as I marked it up.


Notice what I did first. I "blacked out" the lines that are not comparable to today's race. When you look at what's left, there is just no way this horse could be left out. Even if you use the last line, the horse still shows the best first fraction and that is the horses worst race.

Bill suggested you write down the "running style" for each horse in the race to see if there are any other "EARLY" horses. I hope you did this. Between the running line you choose for each "contender" and the visual "running style", these show you a lot of information about the race before you even get to the program and the numbers it provides for you to analyze. It even helps with "how" you should analyze the race. Bill asked you to look for other "EARLY" horses by "running style" for that reason. If you can't find another early horse, then the #6 starts to really stand out for you. Also, you don't have to actually "write down" the running style for your contenders, the program allows you to do this. Look at the #6 in this post. Above the running lines for the horse you will see little silver blocks labeled "F E EP P SP S U" . These stand for....
fighter
early
early presser
Presser
sustained presser
sustained
unknown (no form)
All you have to do is click on the button you feel best describes how the horse normally runs. It's easy!
In the case of the #6 horse, it shows "E".
The other thing to notice is the little number in the block with the "E", it shows a "7". This is the amount of Quirin Speed Points this horse has earned. The higher the number, the earlier the horse generally runs.

Hope all this helps.

[cody]

Thanks Bill and FTL both of you give clear and percise explanations.Now that I have relooked at the race 5 times,the thing that scared me away from the 6 was the 3 horses last line,the segment screen showed if the 3 decieded to go after the 6 it would over take him in the 2nd call,I should have disregared that RS he showed in his last race,it was a typical.

Thanks
Cody