Ravens Run

[Appy]

It's the Equibase feature race of the week (gratis PP) and going at Keeneland tomorrow.
Field of 12 3 yr old fillies going 7 furlongs.
Anyone playing Keeneland tomorrow?

Almost forgot to mention...one of my charting system horses pulled off a big one at Keeneland yesterday, winning @ 36.4 and paid $74!
Exactly the kind of horse that gives me a handicapping headache. Snow Fair!

[Bill Lyster]

By my count 1 E, 10 P, 3 SP and 1 S. Looks like the winner has to come from 4th or farther out.

I think that 5 is best followed by 11 and 16. The 14 is my price horse and I don't really know what to do with the 7 whose turf sprints might translate well to the poly track, a horse that RDSS does not like. Trust or not, I don't know.

That is all I have to say about that.

[Bill Lyster]

5 scratched so 11-16-9 as revised.

[Appy]

Just pen and paper for me Bill, along with some sketchy mental calcs!
I discarded any horse who has no experience @ 7 furlongs (or just doesn't pass a quick eyeball test) and I only used 7F lines to lessen the anxiety of those mental calcs.

Not sure a SP wants it, but I could see #2 Sittin At The Bar(line 4) getting the lead and keeping it. This horse intrigues me. She's coming in off 4 straight wins at different distances. She seems to have "IT" when it comes to finding a way to win...but her wins have come at relatively lower competition levels, so there's that.
#4 Salsita (line 3) is a slight ML fav and the mutual pick to win but my sketchy mental calcs say she hasn't registered fractional times to match #2.
#8 Elusive Fate (last line), at 30-1 ML, has run as a EP, but I think she will be about 3rd of those listed here @ 2C. I think that will be her best effort for today.
#9 Ciao Bella Luna is 4-1 ML. She is rarely further from the lead than 4 lengths at 2C and I see her competing the whole way. My second choice contender.
#11 Irish Lute, ML 10-1, will compete within a few lengths of the lead to the stretch, then tire slightly.
#16 @ 10-1 figures to compete for the lead to 1C but I smell a fade to 5th thereafter.

I'll paper trade with 2-9-11.
Can't wait to see how it unfolds.

[Appy]

My smeller is broke.
If you played 2 horses to win with your top 2 you came out smelling like roses, Bill!
16-14-10-9
Way to go man. Love it!
Irish Lute was 10-1 ML. I didn't catch the final odds.

[Bill Lyster]

I had the 16 and chickened out on using the 14. Too bad.

I did something interesting in this race. I took a piece of paper and penciled in some columns, with each column numbered 1-8 to represent the position in the pack at the first call from which each horse had done its best work.

The 3 was the only horse in column 1, although the 13 had run well from the 1-2-3 positions.

Col 2 3-4-6-13-15
Col 3 4-6-8-13-15-16-14
Col 4 16-14-2-7-9-10-11
Col 5 16-7-9-10-11-12
Col 6 16-7-9-10-11
Col 7 7-9

The four best raw times (in order) adjusted to the distance belonged to 16-13-11-2.

Then I wrote down how far behind each of the horses was at the 2nd call. 5 of the horses in the "3" column had done well when no further back than 4 lengths; 7 of the horses in the "4" column need to be within 4 lengths. The 4-8-10 while they had done well in 2-3-4 positions did so from much farther back than 4 lengths so I eliminated them. With these eliminations there we 10 horses who ran best from the 3rd and 4th positions. Guess what? You can't fit that many horses across the track, so a few of these souls became uncomfortable and had to run out of there customary positions.

This helped when I looked at best times. Of the horses in col 3 the 6 and 16 ran the closest to the lead, but I considered 2-6-13 as earliest of the group and none of them could win, IMHO.

That left me with the 11 and 16. The 16 would get first run on the 11; the 11 did not fire and the 10 who liked to run about 6.5 lengths off the pace from somewhere around the 4-6th position made a good run for 2nd. Like I said, no exacta for this one, but the win was good enough.

Regards,

[Appy]

I may not be in the best position to say how Sartinistic that little exercise was, but I'm in perfect position to say that little exercise was the most fun I've had since it was ME who won big on an accidental discovery of a system within a system!
Great stuff Bill. I genuinely enjoyed it.
(I was waiting for someone to throw rocks at my line selection )

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by Appy

I may not be in the best position to say how Sartinistic that little exercise was, but I'm in perfect position to say that little exercise was the most fun I've had since it was ME who won big on an accidental discovery of a system within a system!
Great stuff Bill. I genuinely enjoyed it.
(I was waiting for someone to throw rocks at my line selection )

Hi Appy

Please watch this video.

hurt.mp4

My feelings to you with respect thanks

Bill

PS

(I say 3 and 6 ) but I meant 16

The winner

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Hi Appy

Please watch this video.

Attachment 36003

My feelings to you with respect thanks

Bill

PS

(I say 3 and 6 ) but I meant 16

The winner

Attachment 36002

In Bill's video, he wasn't exactly sure, but DeD IS "Delta Downs".
Bill was also right when he said Delta Downs is a "bullring".
Most importantly, Bill identified the time off for the #16 horse as being a result of an injury called "bucked shins".
If you don't know what "bucked shins" are, just go to Google and type it in the search bar. You will find several articles there that will explain the condition to you as well as treatment for the condition. Whatever remedies are used in treating the condition, time away from the races is a part of the rehabilitation.

[Segwin]

Bill, how did you know that the horse was off due to an injury? Is there a repository where this type of information is logged and made available?

Thanks.