Monday July 28 Gr 2 Honorable Miss @ Saratoga - Pace and Cap

Bill Lyster · 07-29-2014, 12:50 PM

Entries for yesterdays 8th at Saratoga: #4 Red Velvet was a scratch. Need one more shot for rest of entries.

Bill Lyster · 07-29-2014, 12:53 PM

Monday at Saratoga:

Bill Lyster · 07-29-2014, 01:16 PM

The 1 looks unbeatable. 8 out of 9 this distance, always breaks first or second (7/10) anyway. Third back at AQu ran 22.1-44.4-56.3 and 109 her best time. I used this as projected pace. Only loss in last ten was when challenged in stretch at LRL to a horse also in this race.

The 2 is SP with a best time of 109.6

The 3 is another dedicated Early horse with a best time of 109.4 from the interior fraction of the 7 furlong race in line 3. This horse does not have to break well in order to get lead or win. Last race at CRC broke 3rd but made lead in 21.6 and 44.2. The bottom two races show breaking 7th and 3rd with both first fractions in 21.1

The 5 is an SP with best time of 109.4

The 6 is a P with best of 109.6 off its maiden win at bottom of PPs. In line 2 its next best was 109.9

The 7 is a P with a best 6 furlong time of 110, but extracting from the one turn mile it might be as low as 109.6

My analysis really came down to the two E types. The 1 ran fastest vs 44.6 2nd call; the 3 had run/won vs 44.2 in last at 44.0 a while back. The 2 failed against a 45; the 5 won vs 45 but with slow final time - was competitive at 45.6, but has never faced a sub 45 2nd call; the 6 collapsed vs 44.2 and the 7's best race was against a 45.6, HOWEVER in its last one turn mile you could extract 21.8-44.9 and 109.6 fractions. The 44.9 would make her the best of the pressers, a fact that I overlooked in my analysis.

My thought was that as long as the 3 did not fall down, she would get lead and dominate the 1. I also saw that the 3 could run a turn time of 22.2 which was better than any TT by the 1.

Reward: #3 wins at 6.50/1.00. The 1 broke first, but the 3 rushed past and never looked back. The 7 was 2nd, but not on my ticket. The key was fastest first fraction no matter what the break position was. I am sure that the short field helped.

Bill

07-29-2014, 12:50 PM	#1
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Monday July 28 Gr 2 Honorable Miss @ Saratoga Entries for yesterdays 8th at Saratoga: #4 Red Velvet was a scratch. Need one more shot for rest of entries. Attached Images

07-29-2014, 12:53 PM	#2
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	last of entries Monday at Saratoga: Attached Images

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07-29-2014, 01:16 PM	#3
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Discussion The 1 looks unbeatable. 8 out of 9 this distance, always breaks first or second (7/10) anyway. Third back at AQu ran 22.1-44.4-56.3 and 109 her best time. I used this as projected pace. Only loss in last ten was when challenged in stretch at LRL to a horse also in this race. The 2 is SP with a best time of 109.6 The 3 is another dedicated Early horse with a best time of 109.4 from the interior fraction of the 7 furlong race in line 3. This horse does not have to break well in order to get lead or win. Last race at CRC broke 3rd but made lead in 21.6 and 44.2. The bottom two races show breaking 7th and 3rd with both first fractions in 21.1 The 5 is an SP with best time of 109.4 The 6 is a P with best of 109.6 off its maiden win at bottom of PPs. In line 2 its next best was 109.9 The 7 is a P with a best 6 furlong time of 110, but extracting from the one turn mile it might be as low as 109.6 My analysis really came down to the two E types. The 1 ran fastest vs 44.6 2nd call; the 3 had run/won vs 44.2 in last at 44.0 a while back. The 2 failed against a 45; the 5 won vs 45 but with slow final time - was competitive at 45.6, but has never faced a sub 45 2nd call; the 6 collapsed vs 44.2 and the 7's best race was against a 45.6, HOWEVER in its last one turn mile you could extract 21.8-44.9 and 109.6 fractions. The 44.9 would make her the best of the pressers, a fact that I overlooked in my analysis. My thought was that as long as the 3 did not fall down, she would get lead and dominate the 1. I also saw that the 3 could run a turn time of 22.2 which was better than any TT by the 1. Reward: #3 wins at 6.50/1.00. The 1 broke first, but the 3 rushed past and never looked back. The 7 was 2nd, but not on my ticket. The key was fastest first fraction no matter what the break position was. I am sure that the short field helped. Bill Last edited by Bill Lyster; 07-29-2014 at 01:20 PM. Reason: revised comment 7 horse