Negative Drops

[Bill V.]

Hi I would like to have you look at this horse
and ask Is this a negative drop ?

I will wait a bit and lets see what we come up
Please feel free to join in

[Bill Lyster]

bill, my first look would say probably not. If you look at the PPs for last year the horse was 3 for 10 which means that the 11 race back was a win. If you discount its 3rd back as a life time best after which it took a 59 day rest, this horse looks to have class somewhat under the claiming price it has won at, if only because it was running in races limited to winners in the last six months (if I am reading the conditions correctly). This might be similar to a claiming race for non winners 2 times in their lifetime. For example, most nw2l Claiming 16000 horses are not as good as open claiming 16,000 horses, (same for the 12,500 and 10,000 level if your track goes that low)

after the 59 day rest the horse came back in a sprint prep for OC 20 claimers, n2x, so it was never going to win that one. But unfortunately, this caused another time out, this time for 105 days. We look back at the last year and find no gaps greater than 30 days other than the 59 day noted earlier. This horse needed the time off, tried a sprint and failed, went last at nearly its highest claiming level ever. I would guess that the trainer was hoping for a final payday and be done with the horse, or more sneakily, drops into a 5K claimer for down the line qualification purposes for starter allowance races.

In the PPs we can also see two wins each coming after "never lift a leg" performances in higher class races. In one case the win was next out, in the other it took two races to win, so someone has figured out the form cycle of this horse pretty well. From the actual odds it looks like whoever the trainer was, was not fooling too many of the public either.

This horse needs the drop to be competitive IMHO.

Cheers,

[DaveEdwards]

My reasoning here is that this looks like an injured horse that they are trying to offload on the cheap.

It was claimed after it's last race at $16k level and is now in a race for $5k. If the new owners are prepared to lose $11k on this horse without ever running it I'd say there are big problems.

I'm going to post this now & look up the result where it probably wins at a canter!

[DaveEdwards]

haha, it was still negative!

[Bill V.]

Ha Ha Dave I knew people would check the results
that is why i picked this horse because it WON However the question still remains was this a negative

Here is another fact At PRX they run many "Starter Allowance"
races

Now they claimed the horse for 16ooo They could not run it at that level for 30 days. After 42 days they drop it to $5000 nor non winners of a race in 6 months

BUT now If they can avoid the claim They still have a potential starter allowance of a claiming race of 5000 8000 10000 12500 or 16000
OR was the work out 8 days before the
drop a illusion to ask for a claim ?

The starter allowance wrinkle is something that was not addresses by Tom
Brohamer in the 4 day lecture series .


more to come ...

[DaveEdwards]

The whole issue of class is a bit of a mystery to me beyond the claimers and so I've been getting some books by Quinn to help with this.

...................................................................................

Back to this horse. what TB does point out that if there is a strong work prior to the drop then the horse is for sale. He also says that horses on the negative drop sometimes have one more win left in them and at $4.40 I'd oppose horses like this all day long.

Interestingly for the owners, they won the race covering the fall in claim price with the purse and also got the horse claimed.

I wonder what happened to it subsequently.

[DaveEdwards]

Not much it would appear. Unplaced in three further races & well supported in two of those.

[Bill V.]

No things have not worked out for the new owner and trainer
Here are the result charts for I love its next 3 races after the claim

[Bill V.]

The RDSS PP's do not show this but this is the third time
Phil Aristone has claimed I Love It for owner J Armstrong

July 8 2013
Oct 7 2013
and again
May 26 2014

[Ryan.p.coli]

I was literally just reading this chapter in Modern Pace Handicapping an hour ago. Tom mentions that horses on suspicious drops may be able to win, but clearly not in top form.

I was considering a bet on this horse due to the drop from allowance company and Robert Hess' decision to ship from NY... but decided to pass