Match Up - Pace and Cap

gl45 · 05-23-2008, 11:21 AM

from Randy K.
"When Jim would just simply look at a race and toss out most of the field because "they can't win", there was no way to nail down exactly "Why" he decided that."

ATM- March, 1962 RT wrote:
"From what has been said so far, it becomes clear that one of the first step in handicapping a race is to eliminate all animals in the race that DO NOT ENJOY at least, fair current CONDITION. Since a horse can't win if it is not sharp it is a waste of time to figure horses that are sadly lacking in this department. They should eliminated before one starts to figure the race."

Is horse's condition= "why" Jim would toss out most of the field?

socantra · 05-25-2008, 04:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lbj

from Randy K.
"When Jim would just simply look at a race and toss out most of the field because "they can't win", there was no way to nail down exactly "Why" he decided that."

ATM- March, 1962 RT wrote:
"From what has been said so far, it becomes clear that one of the first step in handicapping a race is to eliminate all animals in the race that DO NOT ENJOY at least, fair current CONDITION. Since a horse can't win if it is not sharp it is a waste of time to figure horses that are sadly lacking in this department. They should eliminated before one starts to figure the race."

Is horse's condition= "why" Jim would toss out most of the field?

That's part of it, but mainly, I don't think I ever read or listened to anything from Jim Bradshaw that he did not go on and on about SLOW horses, and how you must get them out of the race.

He was talking mostly about messing up your readouts in the programs, but it would certainly apply to matching too.

A lot of times a slow Early horse will have a decent 2nd fraction, but if he was shut down in the 1st fraction and came into the 2nd 6 lengths back, he's not going to figure in the race though he might make something else look worse in the 2nd fraction.

I suspect his slow horse definition encompassed a lot of things, but I've spent a lot of time in recent years trying to get better at identifying how to spot The Hat's SLOW horses.

In the manual entry programs and in the Match Up you just leave them out of the mix. In download programs, it is vital that you actively take them out.

shoeless · 05-25-2008, 08:54 PM

As Tom B used to say GARBAGE IN GARBAGE OUT.

gl45 · 05-26-2008, 06:02 AM

Socantra,
a good example of what appear to be a slow horse is a race where Richie and I discussed after the fact. No software was used. The race in question was AP 5-24 race#9. The Match Up clearly indicate an OTE race and #6 as the probable winner due his last race. We know that #7 did place and my question to you is:
Is #7 a slow horse that can't overcame today's POR based on his past performance? Do you see anything positive about this horse that would allowed you to use him in an ex, or toss him out?
Btw the ex paid $451.00

admin · 05-26-2008, 07:23 AM

Hello Pino

I hope its ok to jump in here
I know you asked Socontra but I kind of have a question based on how I do races - matching up but using software too, First off I am following the hats guidelines of only using turf and poly lines on a Poly surface

My lines
#6 - 1
#5 -1
#8 - 6
#7 - 4
#1 - 5

Maybe It was the position move
7 7 7 4 at 7.0 furlongs against the fast pace 109.3 ?

Thanks for asking and helping me

Bill

gl45 · 05-26-2008, 07:45 AM

Bill,
can you find a faster line beside line 4 on poly? I'll bet you can.

admin · 05-26-2008, 08:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lbj

Bill,
can you find a faster line beside line 4 on poly? I'll bet you can.

hello Pino

Yes I see it now and its from AP too
line 6

Bill

gl45 · 05-26-2008, 09:58 AM

Bill,
run you software using line 6 and line 7, see what you end up with.

admin · 05-26-2008, 11:21 AM

Hello Pino

When I first ran the race using line 4 the 7 was tier 4

when I ran the software with lines 6 and 7
but without the line 4 line 6 was also tier 4

when I used all 3 lines this is what I get
I didn't want to use line 7 because its not poly or turf
Is this right

Thanks
Bill

shoeless · 05-26-2008, 11:26 AM

Bill,I agree with you about not mixing poly and dirt lines they are 2 different animals.But in my opinion the same is true for turf and poly I dont think just because a horse runs good on turf that he will run well on poly.Jeff

05-26-2008, 06:02 AM	#4
gl45 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 878	Socantra, a good example of what appear to be a slow horse is a race where Richie and I discussed after the fact. No software was used. The race in question was AP 5-24 race#9. The Match Up clearly indicate an OTE race and #6 as the probable winner due his last race. We know that #7 did place and my question to you is: Is #7 a slow horse that can't overcame today's POR based on his past performance? Do you see anything positive about this horse that would allowed you to use him in an ex, or toss him out? Btw the ex paid $451.00 Last edited by gl45; 05-26-2008 at 06:10 AM.

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05-23-2008, 11:21 AM	#1
gl45 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 878	Match Up from Randy K. "When Jim would just simply look at a race and toss out most of the field because "they can't win", there was no way to nail down exactly "Why" he decided that." ATM- March, 1962 RT wrote: "From what has been said so far, it becomes clear that one of the first step in handicapping a race is to eliminate all animals in the race that DO NOT ENJOY at least, fair current CONDITION. Since a horse can't win if it is not sharp it is a waste of time to figure horses that are sadly lacking in this department. They should eliminated before one starts to figure the race." Is horse's condition= "why" Jim would toss out most of the field?

05-25-2008, 08:54 PM	#3
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,645	As Tom B used to say GARBAGE IN GARBAGE OUT.

05-26-2008, 07:23 AM	#5
admin Administrator Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,643	Hi Pino Hello Pino I hope its ok to jump in here I know you asked Socontra but I kind of have a question based on how I do races - matching up but using software too, First off I am following the hats guidelines of only using turf and poly lines on a Poly surface My lines #6 - 1 #5 -1 #8 - 6 #7 - 4 #1 - 5 Maybe It was the position move 7 7 7 4 at 7.0 furlongs against the fast pace 109.3 ? Thanks for asking and helping me Bill Attached Images Last edited by admin; 05-26-2008 at 07:28 AM.

05-26-2008, 07:45 AM	#6
gl45 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 878	Bill, can you find a faster line beside line 4 on poly? I'll bet you can.

05-26-2008, 09:58 AM	#8
gl45 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 878	Bill, run you software using line 6 and line 7, see what you end up with.

05-26-2008, 11:21 AM	#9
admin Administrator Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,643	Hi Pino Hello Pino When I first ran the race using line 4 the 7 was tier 4 when I ran the software with lines 6 and 7 but without the line 4 line 6 was also tier 4 when I used all 3 lines this is what I get I didn't want to use line 7 because its not poly or turf Is this right Thanks Bill Attached Images

05-26-2008, 11:26 AM	#10
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,645	Bill,I agree with you about not mixing poly and dirt lines they are 2 different animals.But in my opinion the same is true for turf and poly I dont think just because a horse runs good on turf that he will run well on poly.Jeff