Rmath's 4-factor Method - 'from the top'

[Mitch44]

Yes a very nice score Bill, congrats.


Mitch44

[rmath]

Congratulations Bill on a great score.
Rmath

[rmath]

Ted, I ranked the 2 and 6 as equals because the 6 only had a 3 in the 4 numbers and the 2 while only having 3 numbers one was a two.
My order was 1,4-5-2,6 making the 2 & 6 tied for 3rd.
In reality you are right in your rankings ( by the numbers) I allow a little room for judgement when it comes to separating my 3rd 4th and 5th ranked horses.
Just remember that any horse with 3 or 4 ratings will win 80- to 85% of the races.
Richard

[Mrbill]

Played yesterday at Saratoga and had a terrible day. Non-contenders won a few races which screwed up the works. This game will definitely keep you humble.

[rmath]

Mrbill, I had a similar day at GP, but on most days the numbers will hold up.
Richard

[Mrbill]

Richard;

I had a question for you. This is one of the races I lost yesterday. This is the fourth race at Saratoga. When you do the eliminations, the winner Sky Kitten is not in the contender group. However, the horse looks very good in the 3rd section (PF3, TSF3, etc.). I haven't seen this very often so far, but it blew up my pick 4 ticket. What are your thoughts on handling horses like this?

[rmath]

The horse you are asking is a longshot horse.
If you read LT1s post on a longshot he hit on last week you would understand .
While 90% of all winners are in the top 5 Profit Line OR Prime Power ratings about 5% of the non PL or PP horses have a VDC/ CSR rating and should be checked out before totally eliminating them.
Hope this helps.
If you would like to discuss this in a little more detail give me a call.
Richard
330-627-4097

[rdiam]

I will let rmath answer regarding his method, but in any race consider those with the top 2-3 SR or those within 1 point of the top 2-3 worthy of a second look. You also might consider analyzing a horse's form cycle: in this case, the line 3 back was a "new top" (to borrow a phrase from the "Sheets" guys). The horse then reacted and ran poorly in the race 2 back in a NW1, and in its last race it was circling back around with a quality race at this class level. Using the last race in your analysis would show this horse to have a significant closing kick running sustained. Finally, there was a positive jockey switch to Franco. All of these together would indicate to look a bit more closely at this horse.

Richard

[Mr.Pagine]

Much Appreciated.

Let's CASH!!

Happy Punting!!!!!!!!
Jon

[Mitch44]

Great reply Richard.


Mitch44