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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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08-13-2021, 07:25 PM | #1 |
AlwNW3X
Join Date: May 2019
Posts: 40
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Race with new distance for all? PL selection
Del Mar Race 1 today- 8F on Turf
Field of 8 post scratch.... All starters have been sprinters in minimal starts- all but 1 lone start from the bunch on dirt. How do you set your PaceLines for this scenario? Going to guess most skip the race entirely but I am curious. I had my selections of 2,4/6,7,1 but watched the tote action to guide me. Small dutch on 2,4 so DQ didnt bother me, but is there an ideal way in this scenario besides skipping? |
08-14-2021, 01:03 AM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,878
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I think the technical term for this kind of race is 'crap-shoot'. But, also where prices can be had from time to time. Choose your chaos tolerance.
My rule is: demote from Win in a turf race anyone who has not previously run (well) in a Turf race. I win more than I lose by applying this guidance. Thus - there's only 1 horse: the #4 (the rule magically knows about DQs ). The default 'Best of Last 3' Paceline Strategy works as well as any, IMO. FWIW, take a look at the Supplementary Factors on the Rx screen, including the PoR Supplementals. Which of the underneath horses rates best? (the #7 Place horse). The other part of the crap-shoot is: who knows how these horses will stretch out (another 3 furlongs). Your Exacta part-wheel seems the perfect bet that the favourites will not finish 1-2, given the action on those 2 and the FTS. $6 bet returns $32, or 5-1 (probably better if you dutch it for an equal payoff). Is 5-1 enough payoff with so many unknowns? I'd rather get more, and would pass. Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 08-14-2021 at 03:38 PM. Reason: typo |
08-14-2021, 02:41 AM | #3 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
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Quote:
1 1 2 2 4 1 6 1 7 1 9 1 My pace numbers point to 4-2-7. Admittedly I am doing this after the fact and not evaluating any of the firsters. I see Ted and I have different lines for #6, but for me it was a toss up on that one. Last edited by ranchwest; 08-14-2021 at 02:59 AM. |
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08-14-2021, 09:14 AM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,274
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As one who maintains models for each dist and surface of the tracks I play I would lean on the %med range since most sprinters expend their energy too early in routes i would see which factors are currently winning at the dist. Still the best course in this type of race is El Paso.
Tim
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Trust but verify |
08-14-2021, 09:54 PM | #5 | |
AlwNW3X
Join Date: May 2019
Posts: 40
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Quote:
Sorry I was away today and unable to get on the forums for most of the day. I would think that 5-1 given the unknowns is below the acceptable risk/reward ratio for most gamblers that seek higher value in chaos races. I do like the demote anyone who has not ran well in Turf before- with unknowns one is required to know a little pedigree or see turf works etc....thank you |
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08-14-2021, 09:56 PM | #6 | |
AlwNW3X
Join Date: May 2019
Posts: 40
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Quote:
That is where models help, to understand what wins where, thank you- the %med is an interesting take, just on the fact that sprinters gonna sprint early thought process, and have little left late. I would think perhaps Late would be a good indicator of a stretch out type horse if VDC was low with high energy, but I may be speaking above my knowledge level in this regard. |
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