Saratoga 8/19

[rdiam]

Re: betting

Rule number 1: remember, you are betting against others in the pool, you are NOT betting on horses. Every horse has some chance to win, otherwise, they would not be entered in the race. Your job as a bettor is to decide whether you are getting paid via the odds relative to its chance to win.

Sartin was not much of a bettor: his main contribution in this area was to show that is OK to bet more than 1 horse to win. His worst contribution was to tell people to box exactas and trifectas. Much better to have an opinion and use part wheels based on your opinion.

Some basic betting guidelines that will create positive expected value:

1. Limit your contenders to HALF the number or runners (OK to round up)

2. Minimum win odds for win bets on a horse = half the number of runners (8 horse field, min odds 4-1, etc.)

3. Minimum 2-horse combo bet odds (at 60/40 low odds/higher odds) are 5/2 on low odds, 4-1 on higher odds

4. Minimum 3-horse combo bet odds (equal bets on all 3) are 5-1 on all

5. Hedge your win bet(s) with an exacta part wheel using your remaining contenders not bet to win OVER your horses you bet to win

6. Hedge your win bet(s) with an exacta part wheel using any of the top 2-3 favorites OVER your horses you bet to win NOT included in #5 above.

7. Using Sartin's "55% Solution", add horses underneath in your exacta bets that don't qualify as win contenders

8. Try to avoid exacta combinations that are part of the "public's" 2 and 3 horse boxes

9. Limit your part wheels to 3 horses underneath in fields of 6-8 horses, and 5 horses underneath in fields of 9 horses or more.

10: Don't bet exactas in races with 5 or fewer runners (probably best to pass these types for w/p/s and other vertical bets)

If your handicapping is any good, following these rules should create +EV.

Good luck

Richard