Big mistake

[shoeless]

Hi All

This is what I get for NOT listening to what the program tells me

[shoeless]

So you would look at the sustained horses the top 2 are 3 & 7

Result

3 wins 13.40

7 run 2nd at (14-1) 3-7 exacta 194.00

I only have myself to blame,I did put 1,4.5 on top of 7. Funny
thing is I was all happy I thought I hit it. I got the 3 & 4 confused about
it.

Hope Ray doesn't see this he will give me He** about it

I don't mind putting up my mistakes. hope others learn from it


Jeff

[DanBoals]

Hey Jeff

hope it is okay if i ask some questions
i am not an energy program user, so if this is dumb, please excuse it

i notice a LOT of the time you guys post these shots
that there are generally 2 horses, not 3, for the paragon A, paragon B and energizer
a lot of the time, one of the 2 wins - maybe not the one expected, but one of the 2

assuming you picked good contenders

why not bet the 2 horses from the paragon A,B,energizer
so in this case, the 1 and 3
over your other contenders 5,4,4,7

so 2 win bets for $10 each on the 1 and 3
and then a $2 exacta with 1,3/1,3,4,5,7

that would be an 8 bet or $16 exacta

my guess it would come down to how well you get the top 2 in your contenders as far as profitability

when i am feeling better, will go back thru the previous energy screen shots on the site and see what kind of percentage it shows

best of luck
dan

[DanBoals]

is this the 1st at parx today
5.5 on dirt?

[shoeless]

I forgot this is 1st race today at Parx

Fisrt of all Dan hope that you feel better, I'm sure he could use
some well wishes here. I am not at liberty to say what it is.

Dan never thought of that, I'm not sure that would work with me but
probably would with Ray

It's a good idea though.

Jeff

[DanBoals]

going back a year of energy posts i get this







shoeless - 10/19 r8 parx
4 Hough = paragon a, b
1 Spike = energizer
left out the place horse

4 Hough paid $7.60 to win


shoeless - 11/10 r1 parx
1 crimson = paragon a, energizer
3 sushi = paragon b
4,5,7 other contenders

3 Crimson paid $13,80 to win
$2 exacta 3/7 paid $194.00


shoeless - 10/7 r2 delaware
4 = paragon a,b,energizer
other contenders 2,7,9

left out place horse, have to wonder about the line used for the 4
7 won and paid $5.80


shoeless 7/20 r ??? tdn
didn't have winner in contenders


shoeless 6/22 r5 parx
7 = paragon a,b,energizer
2,3,6 contenders

have to wonder about line for 7 - seems suspicious when a horse is all 3 as above
3 won and paid $3.80
6 place for an exacta of $8.00


shoeless 6/8 r6 parx
2 = paragon a,b,energizer
5,7,3,1 contenders

7 won and paid $19.20
2 placed for an exacta paying $138.00
once again, when a single horse is all 3 seems sketchy

notice the muv on the 7 - it is the horse closest to the dream race max











ray - 10/11 r10 woodbine
1 was lone early speed and won, paid $13.60
nothing else matters in LES races at least imo


ray - 9/22 r4 TDN
didn't have winner in contenders


ray - 6/21 r6 CD
didn't have winner in contenders


ray - 6/13 r6 BAQ
6 City = paragon a,b
4,1,8,9 other contenders

4 won and paid $7.10
6 placed for exacta of 29.02

ray - 5/8 r1 LRL
2 Whats = paragon a
3 Sonic = paragon b
other contenders 1,7,8

3 Sonic won and paid $5.20
7 Endless placed and exacta paid $17.60


ray - 5/7 r6 TDN
3 Mr. Looch = paragon a
6 Midnight = paragon b
other contenders 8,2,7

6 won and paid 12.40
3 placed for a 48.60 exacta


ray - 4/21 r9 PRX
3 cocktail = paragon a
4 sheta = paragon b
other contenders 1,2,6

1 won and paid 4.60
2 placed for 21.20 exacta


ray - 4/1 r8 tampa
4 Dominant = paragon a
9 Top Pocket = paragon b
other contenders 2,3,5

4 won and paid 4.60
5 placed and paid 22.80 exacta


ray - 3/31 r7 parx
2 ahsad = paragon a, energizer
3 diamond = paragon b
other contenders 1,6,7

1 won and paid $17.60
6 placed for a 48.40 exacta
notice something is really wrong on ahsad's data, it is 58 / 30 / 14 for F1,2,3 error here !!!


ray - 3.24 r6 MVR
6 Lady = paragon a,b,energizer
other contenders 2,3,7,8

8 won and paid 29.80
7 placed and exacta paid 96.60
whenever a single horse has all the top, it is usually not the winner in energy it seems


ray - 11/1/25 r2 BAQ
4 Cathe = paragon a, energizer
7 Amund = paragon b
other contenders 2,3,5

5 won and paid 41.42
7 placed and exacta paid 125.86

[DanBoals]

Originally Posted by shoeless

I forgot this is 1st race today at Parx

Fisrt of all Dan hope that you feel better, I'm sure he could use
some well wishes here. I am not at liberty to say what it is.

Dan never thought of that, I'm not sure that would work with me but
probably would with Ray

It's a good idea though.

Jeff

I appreciate your discretion, but it isn't a big deal.

I had a bad fall a couple years ago and it messed up my lower abdomen.
In december, they are repairing a problem with my colon that has been giving me blood poisoning and removing a tumor that has been causing problems as well.

If all goes as planned, I should be back to healthy early in 2027.

[DanBoals]

so just looking at the races with different paragon a and b
the data is wrong on the 3/31 race - you can tell from the fractions something got typo'd
going to throw that out as well
races with the wrong contenders I did not put in either


this leaves us with 7 races
in 5 of the 7 one of the 2 paragon horses won

they paid
7.60
12.80
5.20
12.40
4.60

if you bet $10 on all 14 horses you were in $140
and the pay out would have been $213
that is a respectable ROI of +0.52 on the dollar


you would have hit 4 exactas if you bet the 2 paragon horses over each other and the 3 other contenders
7 * 16 would be a cost of $112
the 4 that hit paid - $283 --- caution here since one exacta paid $194, that might not be a typical haul





shoeless - 10/19 r8 parx
4 Hough = paragon a, b
1 Spike = energizer
left out the place horse

4 Hough paid $7.60 to win


shoeless - 11/10 r1 parx
1 crimson = paragon a, energizer
3 sushi = paragon b
4,5,7 other contenders

3 Crimson paid $13,80 to win
$2 exacta 3/7 paid $194.00



ray - 5/8 r1 LRL
2 Whats = paragon a
3 Sonic = paragon b
other contenders 1,7,8

3 Sonic won and paid $5.20
7 Endless placed and exacta paid $17.60


ray - 5/7 r6 TDN
3 Mr. Looch = paragon a
6 Midnight = paragon b
other contenders 8,2,7

6 won and paid 12.40
3 placed for a 48.60 exacta


ray - 4/21 r9 PRX
3 cocktail = paragon a
4 sheta = paragon b
other contenders 1,2,6

1 won and paid 4.60
2 placed for 21.20 exacta


ray - 4/1 r8 tampa
4 Dominant = paragon a
9 Top Pocket = paragon b
other contenders 2,3,5

4 won and paid 4.60
5 placed and paid 22.80 exacta


ray - 11/1/25 r2 BAQ
4 Cathe = paragon a, energizer
7 Amund = paragon b
other contenders 2,3,5

5 won and paid 41.42
7 placed and exacta paid 125.86

[AwesomeAgain]

Jeff we all make mistakes. Do not beat yourself up over it. I would just suggest for future reference, if you are not sure how to build your wager, Box the top 3 in FX. Look who is ranked 1st and 2nd in FX. The 7 has the highest deficiency but (MUV) But ranks 1st in hidden and the variegate is sustained. The 3 and 7 are ranked 1-2 in sustained, late exertion (lx) as well. Lord knows I made more than my fair share of wagering mistakes or not trusting my handicapping. You know what to do and I have faith that you will correct your mistakes. All the best.

[shoeless]

Thanks Dan for taking the time to do that,very interesting and
need to keep an eye on it


Thanks Bryan for the kind words, for some reason I took this loss
in stride and didn't let it bother me like I usually do.


Jeff