SNY4 -- Exotics - Pace and Cap

alydar_ David · 07-15-2007, 04:52 PM

This is based on boxing the top three choices in the exacta. These picks were made from the screens with no consideration for odds. The bet costs $12 a race.

alydar_ David · 07-15-2007, 05:02 PM

Putting all the money on the top horse to win was more profitable than playing exactas.

Here's a screenshot I shouldn't show as it's only based on four races.

However, I played these races and two of them were cold trifecta hits. As they say, "This warrants further investigation."

I boxed the top four selections for $1, a bet which costs $24.
I only did this on races where I thought a big hit was possible.

alydar_ David · 07-15-2007, 07:08 PM

Here's one of those tris. The trifecta isn't real hard to figure out.

alydar_ David · 07-15-2007, 07:09 PM

The rankings screen:

alydar_ David · 07-15-2007, 07:10 PM

The result:

Jonathan Steele · 07-15-2007, 09:31 PM

I want that fourth place finisher (to complete the superfecta)!

Jon

alydar_ David · 07-16-2007, 01:11 AM

Hahaha! You and me both, Jon.

:>)

alydar_ David · 07-18-2007, 03:28 PM

Boxing the top three choices for this cycle returned a profit. The ROI was 1.21

Today I hit the winner of the second race at DEL which was nice. It paid $9.20 to win. I bet $5 to win on the horse. That's what I'm doing for this next 21 race cycle, advance betting $5 to win on the top horse only (I lost the first five races of this cycle yesterday).

I noticed that I had the exacta cold today (but didn't play it). It returned $34.40. This got me to thinking, how would I have done on that last cycle if I'd boxed the top two choices instead of the top three?

The answer: boxing the top two was more profitable than boxing the top three. The ROI would have been 2.20, or two dollars and twenty cents returned for every dollar invested.

Ironically, I would have missed the biggest payoff I'd have caught by boxing three, but STILL would have made more money with the two horse box.

Here are the stats.

Note, this is not conclusive (or statistically significant), but I'm tracking this for the next cycle and will report the results.

Jonathan Steele · 07-19-2007, 12:14 AM

Hahaha! You and me both, Jon.

:>)

That's where angles and "mainstream" handicapping tools come into play in order to get the fourth and fifth horse (sometimes sixth in a very large field) that'll finish in the fourth slot.

Regards,

Jon

alydar_ David · 07-19-2007, 01:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jonathan Steele

That's where angles and "mainstream" handicapping tools come into play in order to get the fourth and fifth horse (sometimes sixth in a very large field) that'll finish in the fourth slot.

Regards,

Jon

It's also where the "All" button comes into play.

;>)

07-15-2007, 04:52 PM	#1
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	SNY4 -- Exotics This is based on boxing the top three choices in the exacta. These picks were made from the screens with no consideration for odds. The bet costs $12 a race. Attached Images

07-15-2007, 05:02 PM	#2
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Putting all the money on the top horse to win was more profitable than playing exactas. Here's a screenshot I shouldn't show as it's only based on four races. However, I played these races and two of them were cold trifecta hits. As they say, "This warrants further investigation." I boxed the top four selections for $1, a bet which costs $24. I only did this on races where I thought a big hit was possible. Attached Images

07-15-2007, 07:08 PM	#3
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Here's one of those tris. The trifecta isn't real hard to figure out. Attached Images

07-15-2007, 07:09 PM	#4
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	The rankings screen: Attached Images

07-15-2007, 07:10 PM	#5
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	The result: Attached Images

07-15-2007, 09:31 PM	#6
Jonathan Steele Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: New Jersey, USA Posts: 471	I want that fourth place finisher (to complete the superfecta)! Jon __________________ "Free your mind and the profits will follow."

07-16-2007, 01:11 AM	#7
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Hahaha! You and me both, Jon. :>)

07-18-2007, 03:28 PM	#8
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Exactas -- boxing the top two Boxing the top three choices for this cycle returned a profit. The ROI was 1.21 Today I hit the winner of the second race at DEL which was nice. It paid $9.20 to win. I bet $5 to win on the horse. That's what I'm doing for this next 21 race cycle, advance betting $5 to win on the top horse only (I lost the first five races of this cycle yesterday). I noticed that I had the exacta cold today (but didn't play it). It returned $34.40. This got me to thinking, how would I have done on that last cycle if I'd boxed the top two choices instead of the top three? The answer: boxing the top two was more profitable than boxing the top three. The ROI would have been 2.20, or two dollars and twenty cents returned for every dollar invested. Ironically, I would have missed the biggest payoff I'd have caught by boxing three, but STILL would have made more money with the two horse box. Here are the stats. Note, this is not conclusive (or statistically significant), but I'm tracking this for the next cycle and will report the results. Attached Images

07-19-2007, 12:14 AM	#9
Jonathan Steele Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: New Jersey, USA Posts: 471	Hahaha! You and me both, Jon. :>) That's where angles and "mainstream" handicapping tools come into play in order to get the fourth and fifth horse (sometimes sixth in a very large field) that'll finish in the fourth slot. Regards, Jon __________________ "Free your mind and the profits will follow."