Top Horse is "best" - Myth??

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by mufasa

Rich, in case I did not make myself to clear with the post I am asking did you use as your pace line selection best SR last three races (or other) or did you consider best Total Energy last three races (or again other).

Thanks,

Robert

Robert
I did this:
http://bindfold.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2856

[gl45]

Richie,
Lets go a step further, odds 3/1 or better.

#1 BL/BL 64.7% avg. mutuel $9.22
#2 BL/BL 93.3% avg. mutuel $18.50
#3 BL/BL 72.7% avg. mutuel $15.17
#1 EPR 64.2% avg. mutuel $11.90
#1 LPR 66.6% avg. mutuel $20.00

If the rankings numbers are a byproducts of the pace line selected, should we be aware of horses that show fast pace, or otherwise?
Pino

[mufasa]

Originally Posted by RichieP

Robert
I did this:
http://bindfold.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2856

I should have known Rich. I am just thinking out loud here but since your pace line selection is as usual so dependent on best against the projected pace call time for today then perhaps that is why the LPR is necessarily doing better then the EPR. That is a really fast horse who is not leading the race must have the best or better LPR to overcome the pace and win.

I need to stop bouncing around and get down to business with MU exclusively.

Thanks,

Robert

[shoeless]

How did they come out ranked on VDC?

[socantra]

Originally Posted by RichieP

If that's the case paisan then the "best" horse should outperform everything else. Isn't that an accurate statement thinking "logically"? So why doesn't it actually work that way ???E

Food for thought and please remember the title of the thread.

Ciao
Richie

Maybe it has something to do with the fact that we are not looking for the horse who has run the best race. We are looking for the horse who is going to run the best race.

Good research. And thanks for the reminder that Doc spent the last few years of the Follow Up trying to drive home to us that mutuels on the late end are quite often much better.

Dick

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by shoeless

How did they come out ranked on VDC?

Same 66 races Jeff:

#1 V/dc had 23 winners paying:
6.20
14.10
5.40
6.20
5.60
4.80
8.80
7.80
57.40
5.40
10.00
9.20
8.20
7.60
10.70
5.80
4.80
4.80
4.00
32.60
14.40
5.60
17.40

#2 V/dc had 18 winners paying:
22.60
32.20
6.60
9.10
15.30
9.80
9.80
6.40
8.00
21.40
8.00
20.00
11.60
6.60
16.10
11.80
6.40
41.20

#3 V/dc had 7 winners paying:
16.80
4.60
7.20
10.40
7.00
27.20
3.20

[shoeless]

Richie,Looks like 2 comes out much better,more impressive to me is you had 41 winners out of 66 in the top 2 VDC.I know you guys probably dont look at VDC that way.Jeff

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by shoeless

Richie,Looks like 2 comes out much better,more impressive to me is you had 41 winners out of 66 in the top 2 VDC.I know you guys probably dont look at VDC that way.Jeff

Thing that needs to be remembered is TIES which are common with V/dc.Makes things seem stronger than they are Jeff.

Having said that using top 2 V/dc as supporting corrolary for other things being looked at appears quite strong

[admin]

Hi Jeff

VDC is a big part of my final decisions
I am looking for big improvements BLBL to VDC

Richie is very correct
with Validator a horse almost NEVER!! goes backwards
VDC to BLBL Many times a horse will improve 3 bl-2vdc or 2bl -1vdc
many times you see tier 3 BLBL go to Tier 1 BLBL

Thanks
Bill

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by lbj

Richie,
Lets go a step further, odds 3/1 or better.

#1 BL/BL 64.7% avg. mutuel $9.22
#2 BL/BL 93.3% avg. mutuel $18.50
#3 BL/BL 72.7% avg. mutuel $15.17
#1 EPR 64.2% avg. mutuel $11.90
#1 LPR 66.6% avg. mutuel $20.00

If the rankings numbers are a byproducts of the pace line selected, should we be aware of horses that show fast pace, or otherwise?
Pino

Pino
I think it was Ray Talbout who said that true class is a horse that can overcome the pace of race it faces and win.

Maybe the increase in win % of late bucks when matching and selecting lines against a similar proj pace has something to do with it? Maybe this ties in with Hat's "other than early" concept?

Time will tell and to be honest those figures should change as sample increases. Might have been a real strong week for late bucks

I can not check back data because it's gone . I am from the Dick Schmidt school of focusing on short term trends/data rather than long term

Thanks for the data flow