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#11 |
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turf historian
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
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lessons learned and transfered
When I was a resident, FULL of book learning and short on experience I learned a valuable lesson, which , when I finally applied it to racing, made the difference in my becoming much more than just competent.
In all of our clinical discussions, each trying to look better than their colleague, one looked for the esoteric diagnosis FIRST, trying to impress all those around with their erudition. Again and again the attending physician, LONG on book learning and experience, would utter that famous phrase K.I.S.S. KEEP IT SIMPLE STUPID. Same with racing: the horse runs the race, he doesn't KNOW what class he is in, the trainer doesn't run, and the ENTIRE methodology is dependent upon TWO major factors: the 2nd call and the final fraction. THAT'S it! Everything hinges on those two things and one just DISMISSES THE REST. When you simplify your analysis, discard the irrelevant, the outlook becomes crystal clear. |
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#12 |
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Match Up Apprentice
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,105
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The Entire methodology is based on 3 things
Fr1 - Fr2 and Fr3 FPS velocties are calulated from these, Engergy calculations are calculated from these The race starts when the gate opens, this is when the Match Up begins
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"To me, The Match Up supercedes everything" |
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#13 |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,651
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Richie,I thought the same as you that the 6 would pressure the 5 so I was looking for an OTE in the race.Surprised the heck out of me when the 5 jumped out like that and just kept on going.Jeff
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#14 |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 467
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What's changed?
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#15 |
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turf historian
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
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#16 |
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Racing Form Only
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 33
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Two Major Factors - Generally True But Not Always
Generally true is not a "rule" that is correct all of the time. While second call and third fraction my be the two major factors discounting the first call will cost you many races that you would otherwise have won.
I disregarded the first fraction until Jimmy Bradshaw impressed me with the importance of it. Bottom Line - some races are won and lost at the first fraction, some at the second call, and some with the third fraction. It pays to know the difference. |
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#17 |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 9,255
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In Validator, Speculator and RDSS, the following readouts make use of the First Call velocity (Fraction 1):
- Match Up showing Computed Beaten Lengths (F1) (Spec/RDSS) - Incremental Match Up (F1) - E/ep (Early Energy Potential), and by extension L/ep (Late Energy Potential) and Tpp (Total Pace Potential) and Balance - Factor X (FX), Fractal-E - V/DC (Val/RDSS) I would not want to do without computerized readouts showing the effect of Fraction 1 Energy/Velocity. What to speak of seeing if an Early horse can get a comfortable lead position by the first call point (e.g. 2f in sprints, 4f in routes). Of course 2nd call is important, maybe more important. But just because someone says F1 is unimportant to them doesn't make it a general truth. Beware accepting someone else's truth as gospel - create your own. Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
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#18 |
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turf historian
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
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No part of the methodology uses F1 as a stand alone factor: any claimer can run for 2 furlongs but it how the susequent ones are built on that solid or flimsy foundation (by the 2nd call) that is really important.
Heuy Mahl would be ashamed of you. |
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#19 |
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Racing Form Only
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 33
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Claimers and the First Fraction
Yes, some claimers can run the first fraction in 23 seconds while others can run it in 22. I will take the ones who can run it in 22.
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#20 | |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 467
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Quote:
Talk to the HTR guys about F1. They'll give you an earfull. F1 is EXTREMELY important, and I use it as a STAND ALONE factor. I am part of the methodology. Therefore, I am right and you are wrong. |
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