Day off today, Thursday

[pktruckdriver]

Thanks guys for the reponses, David with your model.

I am of the knoowledge that horses accellerating at the 2nd call are winning the few 7F Races here, but am not sure how to research or validate this theory, any idea's?

Again thanks

Patrick

[clore1030]

Originally Posted by pktruckdriver

You sure it wasn't 7 horse in the 2nd Race 30-1 winner?

I got there just in time to see it, great time, just not a winning day.

Lot's of people and lots to do, next time I win too.

No, that was a maiden turfer, I never play those.

[alydar_ David]

Originally Posted by pktruckdriver

Thanks guys for the reponses, David with your model.

I am of the knoowledge that horses accellerating at the 2nd call are winning the few 7F Races here, but am not sure how to research or validate this theory, any idea's?

Again thanks

Patrick

Here is the Pace Of the Race for the four 7f races I mentioned. The bottom figure is from the 9th race today, August 12.

In four out of five times the second fraction was run slower than the first fraction.

[alydar_ David]

Oops, my bad.

Those are the Pace Of the Race figures from the paceline I choose for the horse that won the race. I should have made that clear.

To see the Pace Of the Race figures after the fact look at the result charts. Everyone will see the same thing there.

[pktruckdriver]

Originally Posted by alydar_David

Oops, my bad.

Those are the Pace Of the Race figures from the paceline I choose for the horse that won the race. I should have made that clear.

To see the Pace Of the Race figures after the fact look at the result charts. Everyone will see the same thing there.

Ok , but how and what exactly do I look at to see if the the winning horse is accellerating at the 2nd call to the finish? Precisely, as I thought that the horse whose last call was quicker than the previous call, (the 2nd call, I thought), is this assumption true, if not then I am lost.

Thanks David


Patrick

[pktruckdriver]

By the way an update of my 1st day at the track was that it was fantastic and also a huge place, people everywhere, all having fun , some yelling and some cursing, but most all having lot's of fun.

It seems to me that during our gathering in Saratoga I might be better off bringing some local food stuff , instead of a bankroll, why, well it seems that lately I have been off just a bit off on my capping here, but I am only playing the Spa, might that be my problem, someone mentioned it was, and I now tend to believe them.

PS: And the fact I still play too many races, like pick 3's and some Pick 4's , so tough hitting 2 out of 3 , or 3 out 4, and the horse that won was a horse your bankroll size made you leave off.


Patrick

[alydar_ David]

Originally Posted by pktruckdriver

Ok , but how and what exactly do I look at to see if the the winning horse is accellerating at the 2nd call to the finish? Precisely, as I thought that the horse whose last call was quicker than the previous call, (the 2nd call, I thought), is this assumption true, if not then I am lost.

Thanks David


Patrick

Patrick, you can learn how to calculate feet per second velocity from The Follow Ups in the library.

However, I have no idea why you think this angle is paramount. It's not.

And I agree you are lost. You don't seem to have any direction and are flopping around like a fish out of water.

On the positive side you can find your way. You need to get these crazy ideas out of your head and pay attention to what wins.

Also, as I've recommended to you in a private message you should only be playing sprints at this point. No maiden races either. No turf races. Claiming and allowance sprints. Period. Nothing else.

For one thing sprints are the easiest to handicap. For another they are most condusive to pace anlaysis.

You should be making win, place and show bets only. Prove you can win. Establish self confidence and a bankroll. Follow Dick Schmidt's advice. Start with $200 and turn it into $400 before you even think about exotic betting. Can you do that?

[alydar_ David]

Originally Posted by pktruckdriver

By the way an update of my 1st day at the track was that it was fantastic and also a huge place, people everywhere, all having fun , some yelling and some cursing, but most all having lot's of fun.

It seems to me that during our gathering in Saratoga I might be better off bringing some local food stuff , instead of a bankroll, why, well it seems that lately I have been off just a bit off on my capping here, but I am only playing the Spa, might that be my problem, someone mentioned it was, and I now tend to believe them.

PS: And the fact I still play too many races, like pick 3's and some Pick 4's , so tough hitting 2 out of 3 , or 3 out 4, and the horse that won was a horse your bankroll size made you leave off.


Patrick

Enjoy your time at Saratoga. Bringing lunch instead of a bankroll is an excellent idea. Saratoga is one of the hardest places to win money. And I'm talking about betting online under ideal conditions. Handicapping and betting at Saratoga itself...well, that's extremely hard to do successfully. Very few can grind that out on a consistent basis.

Take in the comaraderie and pageantry of the timeless Saratoga experience.

Oh, and make sure to take a drink of Big Red. Tell us what you think of it.

[noddub62]

Patrick,

That's very good advice from David. To learn you must follow directions one step at a time. Do the 20 race cycle just for sprints and follow the directions from others as to what types of races to cap. For me, no maidens, no NW2, no mixed distances, etc, etc. Others can win with these but I can't. I have found what works for me and I stick with it. Once you are consistenly sucessful with sprints (maybe 100 - 200 20 race cycles with positive ROIs) then move on to something else but you've got to quit jumping all over the place to be a winner, and you can be. Write a plan out on paper and follow it.

I hope this doesn't offend you as it wasn't meant to and if so please forgive me.

Oh, and also use the 20 race WDF to report your races, not on hodge podge scribbles all over the page! Everyone here wants to help you but you must first start by helping yourself.

Enjoy the Spa and I wish that I could be there with you'll.

Bud

[noddub62]

Patrick,

I forgot one thing! The KISS theory. Follow it!

Bud