Thursday Belmont 3rd

[pktruckdriver]

Can a 10-1 win today, as it has in the previous tandems

[lsosa54]

I don't know, can he beat the 4 horses that are ahead of him on the line? How vulnerable are the favorites? Routers with no early speed are tough propositions cutting back in distance. He came out of the clouds at 9f so will he stay in contention by the 2nd call today?

[Ted Craven]

5 horse field, top 2 BL are low odds favourites and top CR horses, 1A is a router and worst ranked. Very low percentage race.

PASS this race. Let's look for a race with more horses in it...

Ted

[tfm]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

5 horse field, top 2 BL are low odds favourites and top CR horses, 1A is a router and worst ranked. Very low percentage race.

PASS this race. Let's look for a race with more horses in it...

Ted

I didn't see this until after the fact so excuse my redboard.

I took the GIFT one number $8.40 exacta. If you play multiple tracks (5 to 10 or so) you find this type of situation at least a handful of times daily. This is the case where the favorite is a LOCK and pretty much a single horse can run 2nd. The 1 and the 2 are closers that need routes and collapsing races and the 7 was coming off a layoff (and is just not as good as the favorite). Leaves us with the 4 (ridiculously good race last out) and 3 (the only other one). 3:1 was a gift under the circumstances.

IMO

[pktruckdriver]

I take it you had the exacta cold for 8.40, no redboarding accusation here, just wondering if that was your wager a cold exacta or boxed, and was 8.40 not too low to wager on?

patrick

Originally Posted by tfm

I didn't see this until after the fact so excuse my redboard.

I took the GIFT one number $8.40 exacta. If you play multiple tracks (5 to 10 or so) you find this type of situation at least a handful of times daily. This is the case where the favorite is a LOCK and pretty much a single horse can run 2nd. The 1 and the 2 are closers that need routes and collapsing races and the 7 was coming off a layoff (and is just not as good as the favorite). Leaves us with the 4 (ridiculously good race last out) and 3 (the only other one). 3:1 was a gift under the circumstances.

IMO

[tfm]

Originally Posted by pktruckdriver

I take it you had the exacta cold for 8.40, no redboarding accusation here, just wondering if that was your wager a cold exacta or boxed, and was 8.40 not too low to wager on?

patrick

It was a cold exacta. If you watched the 4's last race, you knew there was no way he was losing today.

But, this 'method' works when you don't like a number cold, as well. You just need to find races where 2 horses are stickouts and the return is worth an exacta box. For example, today's 7th at WO, where the 3 and the 9 were significant stickouts in the field and the exacta (either way) was paying $17 for $2. This is a 3:1 return for the box.

If not for these 2 plays, I'm losing money today, as the cards aren't exactly great at the tracks I play.

The odds I'm willing to take on a wager are RELATIVE. There are cases where I won't take less than 30:1 on a horse, for example. This has resulted in a few occasions where these horses win at lesser (but still substantial) odds. Then there are cases where I have a strong negative opinion about the rest of the field and will take 3:1 on my money (either win, or one number or 2 number exotic). I don't typically take less than 3:1.

But you have to realize that I don't play multiple horses in a race. I either bet a single horse to win or a one or two number exotic. In the case of the two number, I split a typical single wager in half.

And, you have to realize that playing low(ish) odds continually will get you busted very quickly. The idea, for me, is to bet a little to make (relatively) a lot. These wagers today are just savers.

[pktruckdriver]

Savers , nice term.

Okay 3-1 is good odds and I will look at the race you suggest and see the stick outs, amd thank you for your replies.

I see when a fav is legit to play him on top of 2 horses, usaully 1 being higher odds, but actually has something in ti that suggest it may make it up for 2nd, thus making the profit a little better and then the other horse, the most logical one still has enough of a payout to make the wager worth while, normally about 6-1 for me or a minimum payoput of 14.00 exacta or so, oh well thanks again, greta stuff

patrick

[tfm]

These are my singles. Or even my bunt singles. I can't live exclusively on 3-run homers. The idea, is to develop an overall game and be able to take advantage of what the game is giving me. Yesterday, for example, the cards were much better and the opportunities were there for some nice returns. Today, the cards are pretty much terrible all over (IMO), I can either not bet or try to find wagers. The same way a good hitter adapts his at bat to the way the pitcher is pitching him. And, as mentioned, these 'singles' are good for the psyche, as they make up for some of my mistakes.

[pktruckdriver]

Psyche boost is always good in this game, and allows you to stay sharp when hit with the precision you wager them.

Now a 14 winner bet for 20.00 is 140.00 not too bad a day for a small hit, and hitting a few of them out of 4-6 a day I think is very possible, and I am working towards that goal slowly, but still need a little more tweaking to get there, but I am getting closer.

again best of skill to you

patrick