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RDSS Racing Decision Support System – The Modern Sartin Methodology |
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05-20-2012, 04:19 AM | #11 |
Grade 1 Aspiree
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 678
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T-xray
Oh yeah...I forgot about those posts..............
But I since discontinued tracking the T-XRay as the profit measure of using it did not make it worthwhile. I tested the exacta probabilty (about 60% at the time) by boxing 3 horses but that didn't work out. Maybe boxing the top 4 TX horses is the way to go.(similiar to the New Pace study). I never tried that. Maybe anyone that is interested in pursuing this can come up with a study that will show positive results. Ernie |
05-20-2012, 09:46 AM | #12 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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ch ch ch changes
Hi Ernie I could work something up but since the xray changes so often and
very often after the gate opens, at what point would be an accurate measure to track the top 4 tote X ray horses Bill |
05-20-2012, 11:42 AM | #13 | |
Grade 1 Aspiree
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 678
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Quote:
As close to post time as possible...one minute (or less if you can). Ernie |
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05-22-2012, 07:29 AM | #14 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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1 Minute X tote
Hi Ernie
I have started the test. Here are the races I was able to catch the Tote X at 1 minute to post. Here is a screen capture and I also have attached the file if anyone wants to play around with the numbers Tote X 1 is the 0.0 horse Tote X 2, 3 and 4 are the next 3 best ( lowest ) ratings at 1 minute to post The winner of the race is green The place horse is white with a black border The show horse is blue Tote X.xls |
05-22-2012, 12:14 PM | #15 |
Grade 1 Aspiree
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 678
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Hello Bill,
Very nice presentation...thanks for your effort. A quick glance at some stats (Understandably small samples are not predictive). Win 19/28 = 68% (11 winners were low odds 2:1 or less) Exacta Hits 13/28 = 46%.... IMO ..I personally would be reluctant to pursue this further. Ernie |
05-22-2012, 05:27 PM | #16 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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What is tote x ray??
Does anyone understand what “Tote X-Ray” is?
The concept has been around for years and years and worked best BEFORE there was simulcast and/or on line betting. The reason is simple. No money came in after the race was ‘off’ and the only betting was “AT THE TRACK”. It was fairly easy to get a good look at what you needed to know just before the race went off, after all, the tote board was right in the infield and displayed all the information you needed. The concept is also simple and I will explain. Just to make it easy, let’s say there is $10,000 (total) in the win pool and $1,000 (total) in the show pool. The reason you look at the “total” of each pool is to get a ratio of how the public is betting this particular race. In the example, they are betting $10 to win for every $1 being bet to show, therefore the ratio is 10 to 1. The object is to locate a horse where the ratio is “out of whack” in comparison to the total pool ratio. In other words, if you locate a horse whose individual ratio is 15 to 1, then the question becomes, “why?”. If the public is betting at a ratio of 10 to 1, why is this horse’s ratio 15 to 1? The conclusion is, someone “in the know” is betting more on this horse “TO WIN ONLY”, since they EXPECT the horse to WIN. Let’s say you are the owner and/or trainer and you know that your horse is as good as you can make it right now in this race. You also have taken great care to place the horse in “the right” race, meaning the right distance and surface, the right class and in the right race condition. You know you can’t have your horse spotted any better. Are you going to bet your horse to show? The answer always comes back…NO! So in the old days, some “wise guy” came up with this idea of watching the pools to try and locate which horse was “well meant”. Like everything else in horse racing, this is not absolute. These horses do not always win. But the idea was to wager on horses that were well meant. Since the guy that came up with this idea probably wasn’t good enough at handicapping, he sought some other way to determine the probable winner. What you have to understand is this. This guy also had competition. There were also people in the crowd watching the tote board for other reasons. Their “gig” was to watch the tote board with particular attention to the favorite. Since these people knew favorites ran in the money 67% of the time, they were looking for “over lays” in the show pool. These guys were good at math and in seconds could calculate the show payoff based on what they saw on the tote board. When they found that over lay… they pounced on it. By the way, those show betting people bet their money LATE. They didn’t want to ruin it for themselves. In most cases they worked in two man teams. One watched the board while the other was standing at the betting window waiting for a signal. Unfortunately, the money they bet to show changes the pools ratio dramatically. Oops! There have been many, many different ways to attack betting on horse racing. What you know as “Tote X-Ray” is just one of them. It’s nothing new.
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
05-22-2012, 06:10 PM | #17 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Ftl
Thanks FTL
The test I worked on this weekend did nothing for me except open my eyes to how much money comes into races late. Tracking the tote at 1 minute to post often is very different than what happens when the betting is complete. Great story about the Xray Bill |
05-22-2012, 06:13 PM | #18 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,877
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Suppose you have chosen pacelines to the best of your and the software's ability. Your BL/BL screen shows (in top 3 rank order) horses going off at 2-1, 5-1 and 6-1. At 1 MTP the respective TX values are 1.5, 0.0 and 0.5 (ranked 3rd, 1st and 2nd respectively).
We ALWAYS want confirmation on how strong or weak a favourite is. In this scenario, I'm seeking a reason to bet against the 2-1 top ranked favourite. The non-confirmation of the TX to the Win Odds rank gives me another reason to bet against the favourite. My experience is that TX changes less dramatically approaching post-time (and after) than does Win Odds. Also, when the TX rank does not confirm the Win Odds rank, that is useful. I have used TX as info on first time or lightly raced horses (along with workout patterns). Among other scenarios. For the record, Tote Xray is neither the Win/Show ratio (alone) nor is it new (i.e. the fruit of my own brain, though it has been in RDSS for 6 years.) Neither is the Sartin Methodology 'new'. 'Not new' does not equal 'not useful' ... Ted
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05-22-2012, 06:29 PM | #19 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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wild
Hi Ted
This is race 3 from PID Here is the Tote X at 1 minute to post Here is the Tote as soon as the gate pops Here is when the dust settles The 6 wins and paid $11.00 This time the late money helped the winner Bill Last edited by Bill V.; 05-22-2012 at 06:32 PM. |
05-25-2012, 03:11 PM | #20 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,877
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Quote:
Just adding my response from an email I sent you to the public discussion: 'Tote Xray' is a ratio between the win, place and show pools for each horse and between that ratio and the pool totals, weighted by the Win odds. So, it is pool ratios tempered by Win Odds – resulting in a number which is not shown, for every horse, which numbers are then expressed like the Perceptor numbers where 0.0% represents BEST and other numbers for other horses represent a percentage deviation from that BEST.Hope this is helpful to your explorations! yours, Ted
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