Saratoga 8/19

[Lt1]

Hi Dan. Nothing wrong with going 5-6[83%] with 82%roi especially at a track that cards a lot of mdn and turf races. These races tend to have too many questions for my taste[ie FTS, 1st time turf dist changes etc.] Learning when to pass them will aid your bottom line.
Tim

[rdiam]

Re: betting

Rule number 1: remember, you are betting against others in the pool, you are NOT betting on horses. Every horse has some chance to win, otherwise, they would not be entered in the race. Your job as a bettor is to decide whether you are getting paid via the odds relative to its chance to win.

Sartin was not much of a bettor: his main contribution in this area was to show that is OK to bet more than 1 horse to win. His worst contribution was to tell people to box exactas and trifectas. Much better to have an opinion and use part wheels based on your opinion.

Some basic betting guidelines that will create positive expected value:

1. Limit your contenders to HALF the number or runners (OK to round up)

2. Minimum win odds for win bets on a horse = half the number of runners (8 horse field, min odds 4-1, etc.)

3. Minimum 2-horse combo bet odds (at 60/40 low odds/higher odds) are 5/2 on low odds, 4-1 on higher odds

4. Minimum 3-horse combo bet odds (equal bets on all 3) are 5-1 on all

5. Hedge your win bet(s) with an exacta part wheel using your remaining contenders not bet to win OVER your horses you bet to win

6. Hedge your win bet(s) with an exacta part wheel using any of the top 2-3 favorites OVER your horses you bet to win NOT included in #5 above.

7. Using Sartin's "55% Solution", add horses underneath in your exacta bets that don't qualify as win contenders

8. Try to avoid exacta combinations that are part of the "public's" 2 and 3 horse boxes

9. Limit your part wheels to 3 horses underneath in fields of 6-8 horses, and 5 horses underneath in fields of 9 horses or more.

10: Don't bet exactas in races with 5 or fewer runners (probably best to pass these types for w/p/s and other vertical bets)

If your handicapping is any good, following these rules should create +EV.

Good luck

Richard

[DanBoals]

Originally Posted by rdiam

5. Hedge your win bet(s) with an exacta part wheel using your remaining contenders not bet to win OVER your horses you bet to win

Hi Richard,

I do some of these already, and they seem to be good. Number 5 is not something I have considered in the past, and it seems really clever, and I will look at how it works with my handicapping going forward. My first impression is that it will pay off handsomely when my 3rd or 4th selection comes in. Since I seldom bet races with fewer than 7 or 8 horses, that works with your 50% idea. I have noticed that if I get more than 5 contenders, it is best to pass the race.

Appreciate the ideas, really looking forward to putting #5 into my arsenal.

Dan