Recap - HOU Race 10 - 2/25 - Pace and Cap

Jeebs · 02-28-2017, 09:58 AM

A friend of mine who posts here (kpmats10) brought this race to my attention, as he had bet it. He asked me to do a quick work up to see if I would land on the winner, as he learned a lesson in his post-hoc analysis.

Condition for the race: Open $10k claiming for F&M 4up on turf.

We have a full field of nine going in this one. I acknowledged that turf was an Achilles heel of mine, but I would try. Here were my lines going off of a quick analysis from TimeformUS PPs (whose variant is calculated differently):

#1 - Line 1. + Line. No reason to go beyond. E run style.
#2 - 1st off layoff is a + within zero line. Shows E style but lost 8 lengths from stretch call to finish. Variant isn't a big adjustment. Then you have line 2, which is a carbon copy. Track played fast. Only lost 6 lengths from 2C to finish. Speed figure is more in line with previous efforts than line 1, which might be excusable due to 1st off layoff. I would go line 2.
#3 - Line 1. S/P style. No reason to go back farther. However, faces a tougher class test here IMO.
#4 - Line 1. Pure need the lead type. No reason to go farther back.
#5 - Line 1. S type runner. No need to go farther back.
#6 - Line 1, S type runner. Today's class and distance + line. Use.
#7 - if following FTL's guidelines, horse is an automatic "No Line" with the 108 day layoff. Last two are not comparable lines due to surface. Line 3 is last comparable line. However, at 4-1, I'd probably follow the guideline for layoff and let it beat me... so No Line.
#8 - Last line is 1st over HOU turf at the meet. However previous turf outs atrocious. Not in my lifetime or with my money. No line.
#9 - Tricky call... last 4 outs on dirt = not comparable. EP type. Line 5 is a hair below this group IMO, but is a + line and usable.

Code:

             HOU0225 10 8.0 T CL 4+F $9,000 CP=$10,000 10:37PM
                                 PACELINE DATA
 # PN NAME LdNT 1STC  2NDC  FINC   BL1   BL2   BLS   BLF  SR     TRKDISTS

 1  1 SEEKI1 1  50.8 115.3 141.3  0.00  0.00  0.15  2.00  57     HOU 8.0T
 2  2 DOMIN2p   47.1 112.3 137.5  0.00  0.00  2.00  5.90  72     RP  7.5T
 3  3 KITCH1    48.8 113.8 139.2  3.90  1.80  0.00  0.00  69     HOU 8.0T
 4  4 L'ARG1 2  50.0 115.2 140.8  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  61     HOU 8.0T
 5  5 YOUAR1 2  50.0 115.2 140.8  2.20  1.30  3.50  1.80  59     HOU 8.0T
 6  6 CASH'1 1  50.8 115.3 141.3  4.10  2.10  1.20  1.30  57     HOU 8.0T
 7  9 TIGER5    48.6 113.5 140.4  2.10  1.70  2.00  3.80  59     RET 8.0T

Jeebs · 02-28-2017, 09:59 AM

Here were the rest of the readouts. Both 1 and 9 were eliminated off TE and Primary screen during this phase, which leaves us with 5 runners.

Code:

                   TOTAL ENERGY and PRIMARY FACTORS (VAL4)

                               │           PRIMARY FACTORS          │   │SUPP│
┌─┬───────────┬───┬────────┐   ├───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬──┬─┤   ├──┬─┤
│#│PN NAME LdT│SPR│ Total R│   │EPR│LPR│CPR│ TT│ HE│ FW│ FX│   │LS│R│   │LS│R│
├─┼───────────┼───┼────────┤   ├───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┤   ├──┼─┤   ├──┼─┤
│1│ 2 DOMIN2p │ 72│159.88-1│   │  1│  5│  1│  4│  5│  2│  1│   │19│2│   │10│2│
├─┼───────────┼───┼────────┤   ├───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┤   ├──┼─┤   ├──┼─┤
│2│ 3 KITCH1  │ 69│158.85-2│   │  2│  1│  2│  2│  1│  1│  2│   │11│1│   │ 8│1│
├─┼───────────┼───┼────────┤   ├───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┤   ├──┼─┤   ├──┼─┤
│3│ 4 L'ARG1 2│ 61│156.74-3│   │  3│  2│  3│  4│  4│  3│  3│   │22│3│   │13│3│
├─┼───────────┼───┼────────┤   ├───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┤   ├──┼─┤   ├──┼─┤
│4│ 5 YOUAR1 2│ 59│156.46-4│   │  4│  3│  4│  3│  3│  4│  4│   │25│4│   │19│4│
├─┼───────────┼───┼────────┤   ├───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┤   ├──┼─┤   ├──┼─┤
│5│ 6 CASH'1 1│ 57│156.42-5│   │  5│  4│  5│  1│  2│  5│  5│   │27│5│   │25│5│
└─┴───────────┴───┴────────┘   └───┴───┴───┴───┴───┴───┴───┴───┴──┴─┘   └──┴─┘

Code:

             HOU0225 10 8.0 T CL 4+F $9,000 CP=$10,000 10:37PM

                      LATE/EARLY DIFFERENCE GRAPH (VAL4)
 # PNcNAME LdT                      LATE|EARLY                          TOT-R
_______________________________________________________________________________
 1 2 DOMIN2p      0.4                   |                             159.9-1
                                        |
_______________________________________________________________________________
 2 3 KITCH1     -15.6                   |                             158.9-2
                         <--------------|
_______________________________________________________________________________
 3 4 L'ARG1 2   -18.0                   |                             156.7-3
                       <-----------------|
_______________________________________________________________________________
 4 5 YOUAR1 2   -18.8                   |                             156.5-4
                      <-----------------|
_______________________________________________________________________________
 5 6 CASH'1 1   -19.4                   |                             156.4-5
                     <------------------|
_______________________________________________________________________________
                  EX-L    V-L    M-L   <E>   M-E    V-E    EX-E

Code:

             HOU0225 10 8.0 T CL 4+F $9,000 CP=$10,000 10:37PM

                       INCREMENTAL MATCH-UP GRAPH (VAL4)
┌───────────┬────────────────────┬─────────────────────┬──────────────────────┐
│# PNcNAME L│         1F         │         2F          │     3F+TOTAL PACE    │
├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│
│1  2 DOMIN2│                 1->│     4->             │               2->    │
├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│
│2  3 KITCH1│              2->   │             2->     │                   1->│
├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│
│3  4 L'ARG1│          3->       │     4->             │               2->    │
├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│
│4  5 YOUAR1│      4->           │         3->         │           3->        │
├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│
│5  6 CASH'1│  5->               │                  1->│ 5->                  │
└───────────┴────────────────────┴─────────────────────┴──────────────────────┘

BL/BL goes 3-2-4.

Code:

             HOU0225 10 8.0 T CL 4+F $9,000 CP=$10,000 10:37PM

                      BOTTOM LINE -- BETTING LINE (VAL4)

HIDE#  PNcNAME LdT  SR  BAL    LS TIE ODDS   TRKDISTS  M/L DAYS AGE

    2   3 KITCH1    69    5  23.5     EVEN   HOU 8.0T  8/5   21   8

    1   2 DOMIN2p   72    6  17.8      5-2   RP  7.5T 10/1   21   8

    3   4 L'ARG1 2  61    6  17.3      5-2   HOU 8.0T  8/1    8   5

    4   5 YOUAR1 2  59    6  17.0      5-2   HOU 8.0T 10/1    8   5

    5   6 CASH'1 1  57    7  12.8      9-2   HOU 8.0T  6/1   12   5





                     SYNTHESIS POWER RANKINGS AND FRACTALS
                  ┌──┬─┬─┬────┬────┐┌─────┐          │    PRIM     │  SUPP   │
                  │ B│L│T│PRIM│SUPP││FRACT│          │E│L│C│T│H│F│F│S│F│E│T│T│
┌─┬───────────┬───┤ A│S│O├──┬─┼──┬─┤├─┬─┬─┤┌───┬────┐│P│P│P│T│E│W│X│P│X│N│S│P│
│#│PNcNAME LdT│ SR│ L│P│T│LS│R│LS│R││E│L│N││ESP│SCBL││R│R│R│ │ │ │ │N│ │T│ │P│
├─┼───────────┼───┼──┼─┼─┼──┼─┼──┼─┤├─┼─┼─┤├───┼────┤├─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┤
│1│ 2 DOMIN2p │ 72│ 6│5│1│19│2│10│2││1│1│2││S/P│    ││1│5│1│4│5│2│1│3│1│4│1│1│
│2│ 3 KITCH1  │ 69│ 5│1│2│11│1│ 8│1││2│2│1││SUS│ 3.5││2│1│2│2│1│1│2│1│2│1│2│2│
│3│ 4 L'ARG1 2│ 61│ 6│2│3│22│3│13│3││3│3│3││SUS│ 6.3││3│2│3│4│4│3│3│2│3│2│3│3│
│4│ 5 YOUAR1 2│ 59│ 6│4│4│25│4│19│4││4│4│4││SUS│ 6.7││4│3│4│3│3│4│4│4│4│3│4│4│
│5│ 6 CASH'1 1│ 57│ 7│3│5│27│5│25│5││5│5│5││SUS│ 5.6││5│4│5│1│2│5│5│5│5│5│5│5│
└─┴───────────┴───┴──┴─┴─┴──┴─┴──┴─┘└─└─┴─┘└───┴────┘└─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┘

V/DC readout in Validator concurs with BL/BL. By hiding the chalk, it opens the race up big league.

Code:

             HOU0225 10 8.0 T CL 4+F $9,000 CP=$10,000 10:37PM

                         THE  V A L I D A T O R (VAL4)

┌─┬───────────┬───┬───┬────────┐  ┌───┬───┬───┬───┬──┬──┬──┐  ┌──────┐  ┌────┐
│#│PN NAME LdT│SPR│BAL│   TOT-R│  │EPR│LPR│CPR│ TT│FW│HE│FX│  │V/DC-T│  │SUPP│
├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤  ├──────┤  ├────┤
│1│ 2 DOMIN2p │ 72│  6│159.88-1│  │  1│  5│  1│  4│ 2│ 5│ 1│  │     2│  │   2│
├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤  ├──────┤  ├────┤
│2│ 3 KITCH1  │ 69│  5│158.85-2│  │  2│  1│  2│  2│ 1│ 1│ 2│  │     1│  │   1│
├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤  ├──────┤  ├────┤
│3│ 4 L'ARG1 2│ 61│  6│156.74-3│  │  3│  2│  3│  4│ 3│ 4│ 3│  │     2│  │   3│
├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤  ├──────┤  ├────┤
│4│ 5 YOUAR1 2│ 59│  6│156.46-4│  │  4│  3│  4│  3│ 4│ 3│ 4│  │     3│  │   4│
├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤  ├──────┤  ├────┤
│5│ 6 CASH'1 1│ 57│  7│156.42-5│  │  5│  4│  5│  1│ 5│ 2│ 5│  │     5│  │   5│
└─┴───────────┴───┴───┴────────┘  └───┴───┴───┴───┴──┴──┴──┘  └──────┘  └────┘

Jeebs · 02-28-2017, 10:19 AM

After reviewing pacelines in Val4, I made a few "calls" where I changed my lines from the TimeformUS analysis.

#1 - Line 4. Trackmaster's TV of 28 is high for Line 1. Line 2 is not comparable and Line 3 is 7.5F which is projected in the program, which leaves Line 4 as the most comparable line.

#2 - Line 3. Line 2 is a projected line (7.5F), and Line 3 is most comparable.

#6 - Line 2. As was the case with the #1, the TV (28) was too high an adjustment. Line 2 is more comparable.

Here are the new pacelines:

Code:

             HOU0225 10 8.0 T CL 4+F $9,000 CP=$10,000 10:37PM
                                 PACELINE DATA
 # PN NAME LdNT 1STC  2NDC  FINC   BL1   BL2   BLS   BLF  SR     TRKDISTS

 1  1 SEEKI4    48.7 113.1 137.5  1.50  0.15  0.00  1.30  76     RP  8.5T
 2  2 DOMIN3    47.4 111.6 137.7  1.10  1.20  2.10  5.00  72     RP  8.0T
 3  3 KITCH1    48.8 113.8 139.2  3.90  1.80  0.00  0.00  69     HOU 8.0T
 4  4 L'ARG1 1  50.0 115.2 140.8  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  61     HOU 8.0T
 5  5 YOUAR1 1  50.0 115.2 140.8  2.20  1.30  3.50  1.80  59     HOU 8.0T
 6  6 CASH'2    48.8 113.8 139.2  5.40  2.80  1.30  3.50  66     HOU 8.0T
 7  9 TIGER5    48.6 113.5 140.4  2.10  1.70  2.00  3.80  59     RET 8.0T

Jeebs · 02-28-2017, 10:25 AM

Based on TE and Primary factors, 5 and 9 are out in the new workup.

Code:

            HOU0225 10 8.0 T CL 4+F $9,000 CP=$10,000 10:37PM

                    TOTAL ENERGY and PRIMARY FACTORS (VAL4)

                               │           PRIMARY FACTORS          │   │SUPP│
┌─┬───────────┬───┬────────┐   ├───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬──┬─┤   ├──┬─┤
│#│PN NAME LdT│SPR│ Total R│   │EPR│LPR│CPR│ TT│ HE│ FW│ FX│   │LS│R│   │LS│R│
├─┼───────────┼───┼────────┤   ├───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┤   ├──┼─┤   ├──┼─┤
│1│ 1 SEEKI4  │ 76│162.19-1│   │  2│  1│  1│  1│  1│  1│  1│   │ 8│1│   │ 5│1│
├─┼───────────┼───┼────────┤   ├───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┤   ├──┼─┤   ├──┼─┤
│2│ 2 DOMIN3  │ 72│160.03-2│   │  1│  5│  2│  2│  5│  4│  3│   │22│3│   │15│3│
├─┼───────────┼───┼────────┤   ├───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┤   ├──┼─┤   ├──┼─┤
│3│ 3 KITCH1  │ 69│158.85-3│   │  3│  2│  3│  4│  2│  2│  2│   │18│2│   │12│2│
├─┼───────────┼───┼────────┤   ├───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┤   ├──┼─┤   ├──┼─┤
│4│ 4 L'ARG1 1│ 61│156.74-5│   │  5│  4│  5│  5│  4│  5│  5│   │33│5│   │25│5│
├─┼───────────┼───┼────────┤   ├───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┤   ├──┼─┤   ├──┼─┤
│5│ 6 CASH'2  │ 66│158.29-4│   │  4│  3│  4│  3│  3│  3│  4│   │24│4│   │18│4│
└─┴───────────┴───┴────────┘   └───┴───┴───┴───┴───┴───┴───┴───┴──┴─┘   └──┴─┘

BL/BL and Validator both favor 1-3-2 in this matchup:

Code:

          HOU0225 10 8.0 T CL 4+F $9,000 CP=$10,000 10:37PM

                      BOTTOM LINE -- BETTING LINE (VAL4)

HIDE#  PNcNAME LdT  SR  BAL    LS TIE ODDS   TRKDISTS  M/L DAYS AGE

    1   1 SEEKI4    76    4  24.3     EVEN   RP  8.5T  5/1   12   7

    3   3 KITCH1    69    5  21.0      8-5   HOU 8.0T  8/5   21   8

    2   2 DOMIN3    72    7  17.0      5-2   RP  8.0T 10/1   21   8

    5   6 CASH'2    66    8  16.5      3-1   HOU 8.0T  6/1   12   5

    4   4 L'ARG1 1  61    6   9.0      6-1   HOU 8.0T  8/1    8   5





                     SYNTHESIS POWER RANKINGS AND FRACTALS
                  ┌──┬─┬─┬────┬────┐┌─────┐          │    PRIM     │  SUPP   │
                  │ B│L│T│PRIM│SUPP││FRACT│          │E│L│C│T│H│F│F│S│F│E│T│T│
┌─┬───────────┬───┤ A│S│O├──┬─┼──┬─┤├─┬─┬─┤┌───┬────┐│P│P│P│T│E│W│X│P│X│N│S│P│
│#│PNcNAME LdT│ SR│ L│P│T│LS│R│LS│R││E│L│N││ESP│SCBL││R│R│R│ │ │ │ │N│ │T│ │P│
├─┼───────────┼───┼──┼─┼─┼──┼─┼──┼─┤├─┼─┼─┤├───┼────┤├─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┤
│1│ 1 SEEKI4  │ 76│ 4│4│1│ 8│1│ 5│1││1│1│1││LAT│ 3.4││2│1│1│1│1│1│1│1│1│1│1│1│
│2│ 2 DOMIN3  │ 72│ 7│5│2│22│3│15│3││2│3│4││E/P│    ││1│5│2│2│5│4│3│4│3│4│2│2│
│3│ 3 KITCH1  │ 69│ 5│1│3│18│2│12│2││3│2│2││SUS│ 6.6││3│2│3│4│2│2│2│2│2│2│3│3│
│4│ 4 L'ARG1 1│ 61│ 6│2│5│33│5│25│5││5│5│5││SUS│ 9.3││5│4│5│5│4│5│5│5│5│5│5│5│
│5│ 6 CASH'2  │ 66│ 8│3│4│24│4│18│4││4│4│3││SUS│ 6.9││4│3│4│3│3│3│4│3│4│3│4│4│

Code:

 HOU0225 10 8.0 T CL 4+F $9,000 CP=$10,000 10:37PM

                         THE  V A L I D A T O R (VAL4)

┌─┬───────────┬───┬───┬────────┐  ┌───┬───┬───┬───┬──┬──┬──┐  ┌──────┐  ┌────┐
│#│PN NAME LdT│SPR│BAL│   TOT-R│  │EPR│LPR│CPR│ TT│FW│HE│FX│  │V/DC-T│  │SUPP│
├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤  ├──────┤  ├────┤
│1│ 1 SEEKI4  │ 76│  4│162.19-1│  │  2│  1│  1│  1│ 1│ 1│ 1│  │     1│  │   1│
├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤  ├──────┤  ├────┤
│2│ 2 DOMIN3  │ 72│  7│160.03-2│  │  1│  5│  2│  2│ 4│ 5│ 3│  │     3│  │   3│
├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤  ├──────┤  ├────┤
│3│ 3 KITCH1  │ 69│  5│158.85-3│  │  3│  2│  3│  4│ 2│ 2│ 2│  │     2│  │   2│
├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤  ├──────┤  ├────┤
│4│ 4 L'ARG1 1│ 61│  6│156.74-5│  │  5│  4│  5│  5│ 5│ 4│ 5│  │     4│  │   5│
├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤  ├──────┤  ├────┤
│5│ 6 CASH'2  │ 66│  8│158.29-4│  │  4│  3│  4│  3│ 3│ 3│ 4│  │     3│  │   4│
└─┴───────────┴───┴───┴────────┘  └───┴───┴───┴───┴──┴──┴──┘  └──────┘  └────┘

We can still likely hide the ML favorite and open the window to some decent value here.

Jeebs · 02-28-2017, 10:28 AM

I'll leave this up for a bit without posting results so that other people can formulate their own bits of analysis. I'm interested in getting various perspectives here.

raceman5 · 02-28-2017, 12:51 PM

work up Mr Jeebs.

Bob

Bill V. · 02-28-2017, 10:07 PM

Hi Jeebs

Here is my look

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Jeebs · 03-02-2017, 10:31 AM

So KP's original lines were Line 1 for horses 1 through 6, with the balance of the field rated no line due to layoffs/form defects/speed. That was what he based his selections off of.

Then after the fact, he evaluated APV, EPS and CR... in his program (he uses his own homegrown software), the 7 blows the field away in each category. To quote KP, "you have to find a line for that horse with that significant advantage in APV, EPS and Class." So with this "new" information, he re-worked the race (in his own words):

#1 - Still use Line 1.
#2 - Has strong APV and Class but using the tandem concept, was torched 7 lengths by the 3 in their last race. Toss.
#3 - Last race (Line 1)
#4 - You can toss the horse on low APV-EPS-Class, but has a strong turf record. He's an E type too, but speed is not playing well on this turf course and he's going to have company on the front from the 1 and 2. On second thought, toss.
#5 - Within 2 lengths of 4 in last, use last line.
#6 - Last line.
#7 - You have to find a line because of the incredible APV-EPS-Class. Go three back to a turf race with a (+) rating.
#8 and #9 were still throw outs.

Jeebs · 03-02-2017, 11:21 AM

Here was KP's readout with the new pacelines factored (apologies in advance, converted his PDF to Text and encoded text file to paste here):

Code:

       02-25-17               HOU        RACE 10             8.0 T      Clm 10000 10000                 4yr UP MF



# Horse     EPS      FR1   FR2   FR3   A/P   E/P   S/P    E-S 		      F/X  TTS    HE              DCel   M%

                                                         Diff

3   KITCH    P       53.76 54.20 53.74 53.87 53.91 53.82 0.09                53.75 53.97 53.97            0.32% 66.77%

    EN

    BOSS

5   YOUAR    P       53.06 53.38 53.07 53.14 53.16 53.12 0.05                53.06 53.22 53.22            0.18% 66.73%

    EMYCO

    NNECT

    ION

1   SEEKI    E       52.44 54.71 51.40 52.73 53.18 52.29 0.89                51.92 53.32 53.06            3.33% 67.58%

    NG

    LUCK

    (IRE)

7   FOUND    P       51.82 54.89 58.16 54.14 52.80 55.48 -2.68 		     54.99 54.94 56.52            10.15% 64.72%

    A                                                                                                     

    DIAMO                                                                                                

    ND

6   CASH'    P       51.65 55.54 52.49 52.80 52.91 52.70 0.21                52.07 53.80 54.02            0.79% 67.13%

    S GAL





#     Horse            1FR             2FR             EAR           3FR          TT           FF               LAR

3     KITCHEN          49.2            73.5            78            98.0         24.3         24.5             93

      BOSS

5     YOUAREMYCO       49.8            74.5            73            99.4         24.7         24.9             91

      NNECTION

1     SEEKING          50.3            74.5            73            100.2        24.2         25.7             87

      LUCK (IRE)

7     FOUND A          51.0            75.0            70            97.8         24.0         22.8             102

      DIAMOND

6     CASH'S GAL       51.1            74.9            71            100.0        23.8         25.1             90





#   Horse       A/P    E/P        S/P       F/X       TTS     HE      TE     DCel       PV        CR      Score  Score

                                                                                                                  Rank

7   FOUND        1      5          1         1         1       1       1      1          1         1       14         1

    A

    DIAMON

    D

3   KITCHE       2      1          2         2         2       3       2      3          3         5       25         2

    N BOSS

5   YOUARE       3      3          3         3         5       4       4      2          4         2       33         3

    MYCONN

    ECTION

6   CASH'S       4      4          4         4         3       2       3      4          5         3       36         4

    GAL

1   SEEKIN       5      2          5         5         4       5       5      5          2         4       42         5

    G LUCK

    (IRE)

       02-25-17         HOU      RACE 10        8.0 T         Clm 10000 10000       4yr UP MF



#    Horse        EPS         Paceline EAR              LAR         TAR         TAR Rank Differenc

                              Info                                                       e

7    FOUND A      P           IND3Aug16    70 (5)       102 (1)      172        1        -32

     DIAMOND                  8.5f

3    KITCHEN      P           HOU4Feb17    78 (1)       93 (2)       171        2        -15

     BOSS                     8.0f

5    YOUAREMYCO   P           HOU17Feb17   73 (2)       91 (3)       164        3        -18

     NNECTION                 8.0f

6    CASH'S GAL   P           HOU13Feb17   71 (4)       90 (4)       161        4        -19

                              8.0f

1    SEEKING    E             HOU13Feb17   73 (2)       87 (5)       160        5        -14

     LUCK (IRE)               8.0f





E                        E/P                        P                       S

1 - 73-87/160                                       3   -   78-93/171

                                                    5   -   73-91/164

                                                    6   -   71-90/161

                                                    7   -   70-102/172

Jeebs · 03-02-2017, 11:31 AM

Quoting KP: "I didn't pay attention to the class rankings. and neither did you. we both tossed a horse who was the "class of a field" we missed a very gettable $8.60 winner. If you look at the TPR numbers, the 3 and 7 are a 1 point separation and have a 7 point edge over the third ranked horse. they combined for a $26 exacta. take the line of the winner from 3 back, adjust it to Sam Houston, it gets a 102 FFR and runs a 22.8 last quarter. for a cheap 10k claimer! the next fastest closer is 24.5! how did I miss this horse?!?!?...but that was a score that's in excusable to miss, IMO. you won't catch me making that mistake again. use class, every race... it works."

My response to KP was (and feel free to disagree with my stance)... yes, the 7 is the class of the field, but considering the layoff, the length of time between comparable races and the drop (to $10k), I still wouldn't touch this horse at 3-1. I agree that we need to pay careful attention when a horse is clearly "class" and look for clues, but this was a case (IMO) where the odds didn't justify going back to that 3rd line down and making it a contender. There were plenty of horses to select lines for in this particular race and for me (again, didn't play this race, worked it to have a dialogue with KP and learn some things), the proper play would still have been not selecting a line for the 7 and wagercapping by hiding the 3/5 favorite and playing horses in the other BL/BL tiers. Thoughts?

03-02-2017, 11:31 AM	#10
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	Postmortem Quoting KP: "I didn't pay attention to the class rankings. and neither did you. we both tossed a horse who was the "class of a field" we missed a very gettable $8.60 winner. If you look at the TPR numbers, the 3 and 7 are a 1 point separation and have a 7 point edge over the third ranked horse. they combined for a $26 exacta. take the line of the winner from 3 back, adjust it to Sam Houston, it gets a 102 FFR and runs a 22.8 last quarter. for a cheap 10k claimer! the next fastest closer is 24.5! how did I miss this horse?!?!?...but that was a score that's in excusable to miss, IMO. you won't catch me making that mistake again. use class, every race... it works." My response to KP was (and feel free to disagree with my stance)... yes, the 7 is the class of the field, but considering the layoff, the length of time between comparable races and the drop (to $10k), I still wouldn't touch this horse at 3-1. I agree that we need to pay careful attention when a horse is clearly "class" and look for clues, but this was a case (IMO) where the odds didn't justify going back to that 3rd line down and making it a contender. There were plenty of horses to select lines for in this particular race and for me (again, didn't play this race, worked it to have a dialogue with KP and learn some things), the proper play would still have been not selecting a line for the 7 and wagercapping by hiding the 3/5 favorite and playing horses in the other BL/BL tiers. Thoughts?

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02-28-2017, 09:58 AM	#1
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	Recap - HOU Race 10 - 2/25 A friend of mine who posts here (kpmats10) brought this race to my attention, as he had bet it. He asked me to do a quick work up to see if I would land on the winner, as he learned a lesson in his post-hoc analysis. Condition for the race: Open $10k claiming for F&M 4up on turf. We have a full field of nine going in this one. I acknowledged that turf was an Achilles heel of mine, but I would try. Here were my lines going off of a quick analysis from TimeformUS PPs (whose variant is calculated differently): #1 - Line 1. + Line. No reason to go beyond. E run style. #2 - 1st off layoff is a + within zero line. Shows E style but lost 8 lengths from stretch call to finish. Variant isn't a big adjustment. Then you have line 2, which is a carbon copy. Track played fast. Only lost 6 lengths from 2C to finish. Speed figure is more in line with previous efforts than line 1, which might be excusable due to 1st off layoff. I would go line 2. #3 - Line 1. S/P style. No reason to go back farther. However, faces a tougher class test here IMO. #4 - Line 1. Pure need the lead type. No reason to go farther back. #5 - Line 1. S type runner. No need to go farther back. #6 - Line 1, S type runner. Today's class and distance + line. Use. #7 - if following FTL's guidelines, horse is an automatic "No Line" with the 108 day layoff. Last two are not comparable lines due to surface. Line 3 is last comparable line. However, at 4-1, I'd probably follow the guideline for layoff and let it beat me... so No Line. #8 - Last line is 1st over HOU turf at the meet. However previous turf outs atrocious. Not in my lifetime or with my money. No line. #9 - Tricky call... last 4 outs on dirt = not comparable. EP type. Line 5 is a hair below this group IMO, but is a + line and usable. Code: HOU0225 10 8.0 T CL 4+F $9,000 CP=$10,000 10:37PM PACELINE DATA # PN NAME LdNT 1STC 2NDC FINC BL1 BL2 BLS BLF SR TRKDISTS 1 1 SEEKI1 1 50.8 115.3 141.3 0.00 0.00 0.15 2.00 57 HOU 8.0T 2 2 DOMIN2p 47.1 112.3 137.5 0.00 0.00 2.00 5.90 72 RP 7.5T 3 3 KITCH1 48.8 113.8 139.2 3.90 1.80 0.00 0.00 69 HOU 8.0T 4 4 L'ARG1 2 50.0 115.2 140.8 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 61 HOU 8.0T 5 5 YOUAR1 2 50.0 115.2 140.8 2.20 1.30 3.50 1.80 59 HOU 8.0T 6 6 CASH'1 1 50.8 115.3 141.3 4.10 2.10 1.20 1.30 57 HOU 8.0T 7 9 TIGER5 48.6 113.5 140.4 2.10 1.70 2.00 3.80 59 RET 8.0T

02-28-2017, 10:19 AM	#3
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	After reviewing pacelines in Val4, I made a few "calls" where I changed my lines from the TimeformUS analysis. #1 - Line 4. Trackmaster's TV of 28 is high for Line 1. Line 2 is not comparable and Line 3 is 7.5F which is projected in the program, which leaves Line 4 as the most comparable line. #2 - Line 3. Line 2 is a projected line (7.5F), and Line 3 is most comparable. #6 - Line 2. As was the case with the #1, the TV (28) was too high an adjustment. Line 2 is more comparable. Here are the new pacelines: Code: HOU0225 10 8.0 T CL 4+F $9,000 CP=$10,000 10:37PM PACELINE DATA # PN NAME LdNT 1STC 2NDC FINC BL1 BL2 BLS BLF SR TRKDISTS 1 1 SEEKI4 48.7 113.1 137.5 1.50 0.15 0.00 1.30 76 RP 8.5T 2 2 DOMIN3 47.4 111.6 137.7 1.10 1.20 2.10 5.00 72 RP 8.0T 3 3 KITCH1 48.8 113.8 139.2 3.90 1.80 0.00 0.00 69 HOU 8.0T 4 4 L'ARG1 1 50.0 115.2 140.8 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 61 HOU 8.0T 5 5 YOUAR1 1 50.0 115.2 140.8 2.20 1.30 3.50 1.80 59 HOU 8.0T 6 6 CASH'2 48.8 113.8 139.2 5.40 2.80 1.30 3.50 66 HOU 8.0T 7 9 TIGER5 48.6 113.5 140.4 2.10 1.70 2.00 3.80 59 RET 8.0T

02-28-2017, 10:28 AM	#5
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	I'll leave this up for a bit without posting results so that other people can formulate their own bits of analysis. I'm interested in getting various perspectives here.

02-28-2017, 12:51 PM	#6
raceman5 Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Largo Fl. Posts: 2,305	Excellent work up Mr Jeebs. Bob

02-28-2017, 10:07 PM	#7
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	My look Hi Jeebs Here is my look

03-02-2017, 10:31 AM	#8
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	So KP's original lines were Line 1 for horses 1 through 6, with the balance of the field rated no line due to layoffs/form defects/speed. That was what he based his selections off of. Then after the fact, he evaluated APV, EPS and CR... in his program (he uses his own homegrown software), the 7 blows the field away in each category. To quote KP, "you have to find a line for that horse with that significant advantage in APV, EPS and Class." So with this "new" information, he re-worked the race (in his own words): #1 - Still use Line 1. #2 - Has strong APV and Class but using the tandem concept, was torched 7 lengths by the 3 in their last race. Toss. #3 - Last race (Line 1) #4 - You can toss the horse on low APV-EPS-Class, but has a strong turf record. He's an E type too, but speed is not playing well on this turf course and he's going to have company on the front from the 1 and 2. On second thought, toss. #5 - Within 2 lengths of 4 in last, use last line. #6 - Last line. #7 - You have to find a line because of the incredible APV-EPS-Class. Go three back to a turf race with a (+) rating. #8 and #9 were still throw outs.