active vs passive in the Match Up

[tompkins]

Always found that one considers the horses INVOLVED with the pace first: those CREATING the contest, long before you look at the PASSIVE horses: the ones that have to "pick up the pieces' when, AND IF there is a pace collapse. You can often predict a pace collapse, but not always.

William Quirin always stated that come from behind horses have three major problems to overcome: 1) without an active role in the pace, they are at the mercy of a pace that they have NO part in creating 2) the rider has to move at exactly the right time, and that is, at best, an educated guess, and 3) they have to get through the traffic which might occur ahead of them.

Add to that the many courses that have a definite favoritism for earlier profiles, ( i.e. Aqueuduct, SA, Woodbine) and all the cards are stacked against the RELATIVELY later horses.