Match Up Analysis

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by shoeless

If you look on page 27 of the original Match Up book[i know im in the minority but I think it's better then the 2nd one]Hat gives a great way to anaylyze the horses.


1)Look at the horses past performance lines.Identify the normal first fraction time,at a distance comparable to today's distance.WRITE THIS time by the name of each horse.Place a mark next to the time where the horse does his best

2)Follow the procedure for the second call

For me this is the way to do it

If this is your way to do it excellent!

Consider mapping out a game plan based around this Jeff. What are you going to do after your initial work?

a) software choice if any ?
b) raw or adjusted ?
c) track choice (to give consistency to your work/reads) ?
d) Wager plan?
e) money management?

When you have a-b-c-d written down on paper where you can see it PLEASE consider following the advice Jim G gave you in your starting over thread.

30 days
1 software
1 plan
keep records
play on paper
analyze results after trial period

Jim's advice to you was GOLD in my opinion.
Richie

[shoeless]

Parts,My post was geared more to how you go about doing the race before you start to actually handicap it.But I guess at this point it's better then nothing.Jeff

[shoeless]

A)DRF

B)RAW

C)TAMPA and PHILLY

D&E) STILL NEED TO FIGURE OUT

[partsnut]

Originally Posted by Ragin

Hello Partsnut
which race is this ?
Thanks RK

I apologize, I was in a rush to get out of the house this morning.
The race that I illustrated was Race -1 Aqueduct (today).

[simon]

Hello

I hear you, thanks for asking my opinion

I ran the race in KGEN Thoromation

here are my lines

  Horse 1   Line 1   8.0   23.9  48.0   112.4   137.1    5  4  2   1  SP
  Horse 2   Line 1   8.3   23.1  47.1   112.1   142.5    4  4  2   3  SP
  Horse 4   Line 1   8.3   23.5  47.6   112.6   142.4    1  1  3   3  E
  Horse 5   Line 1   8.3   23.2  47.3   111.5   141.1    3  2  2   2  EP
  Horse 6   Line 2   8.0   23.4  46.7   111.8   137.4    4  4  2   1  SP
  Horse 7   Line 3   9.0   47.4  111.3            150.5    5  5  2   3  S
  Horse 8   Line 1   8.3   23.1  47.1   112.3   142.1    5  4  2   1  SP
  Horse 9   Line 7   8.3   23.4  46.3   111.6   141.2    2  2  2   2  EP

  Projected pace  47.6  112.0

The readouts on the SP Preplay screen that comes up first are
1 6 5
on EXDC its
6 5 9
on thoromation its
6 5 1

Partsnut I have been having best results when
The first screen on preplay and thoromation agree
but some races like this one were they are different
not so much
I quess I will go with 6 and 5

Thanks RK

[simon]

A KGEN Thoromation
B Raw
C any
D two horse win bets only
E 60/40 top two choices odds




Thank you for your post
i really am doing much better following along
over in the Hat Check area

It makes it more fun and I get a much better feeling of a good Job
when I follow Jim and you than just picking lines for all horses

I am very grateful for your work

RK

[RichieP]

Guys
here are the raw Power Lines for Parts's race. As you see some are very deep in pp's.

I don't have these programs to export to ( have a feeling they won't work on Vista)

1) Decide after looking at each horse's past performances if they are a contender today.

2) If no throw the horse out

3) If you feel both the earlies shown are NOT in form/contenders race obviously will run other than early.

4) If you feel 1 of the 2 earlies shown ARE in form/contender then the race will run early and that is the horse.

5) If you feel both earlies ARE in form they cancel each other out based on 1st calls and race will run other than early

Some of you guys with the thoromation software maybe can evaluate contenders and throw in the lines I have shown for the ones you feel ARE contenders. Curious as to what the reads show

safe day everyone
Richie

[simon]

hello Rich
I will send it right over

with Kgen/thromation

[shoeless]

Here is my take on the race

1ST-RED

2ND-GREEN

3RD-YELLOW

BOX THESE IN AN EXACTA


I GIVE UP ON THIS THREAD-SEE YOU ALL DOWN THE ROAD

[partsnut]

RichieP:

Some of you guys with the thoromation software maybe can evaluate contenders and throw in the lines I have shown for the ones you feel ARE contenders. Curious as to what the reads show

Ritchie, Thanks for the response.
When I used Thoromation, I used Sartin recommended "opposite screen" approach. If the race in question has mixed distances > greater then 1 furlong comparing the contenders lines, I would "equalize"
For the running lines. In todays race, I used the raw lines. I used the 2 adjust.
My intial contenders were 1,2,5,7 and 8 in accordance with their power lines.
I narrowed them down using Thoromation and the principles of the Match-Up as I understand them.
If I am misconcepted in my thinking, I would appreciate your correction
I used the "5" as my choice but still have my doubts because this horse is the designated place horse which loses many more races then it wins.
Your contenders seem to verify my choice because I threw out the 2 sprinters (early) as suggested in the Match-Up and looked for the other then early horse which in this case would be a presser or "fighter".
If I am wrong, I would appreciate any corrections you may have. Your input is appreciated and valued. I believe you are very sincere in what you believe and teach.

Let's put aside what was and dwell on what is and will be.
Happy New Year to you and all members of Pace and Cap.