position or lengths

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by RichieP

Jeff
OK let me turn you onto something Hat gave me. When we want to evaluate who is gonna get the lead among early runners Jim said evaluate the lines where the horse actually was ON THE LEAD!! Sounds simple enough.

OK so here are ALL the lines of the 2 and 9 when they were on the lead at the 1st call.

Now amongst those lines lets mark the fastest 1c. It is the 9 right out of the last race at a 22.8. We will ignore the fact that the horse also fought for the WHOLE race and we know Hat's feelings about multicall fighters. Put all thats on the side.

here are the lines from before but now the 22.8 1c of the 9 lit up. Also lights up 1 other line for the 2 right?

Not saying this is easy but it is simple.
Screenshot

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by RichieP

Now amongst those lines lets mark the fastest 1c. It is the 9 right out of the last race at a 22.8. We will ignore the fact that the horse also fought for the WHOLE race and we know Hat's feelings about multicall fighters. Put all thats on the side.

here are the lines from before but now the 22.8 1c of the 9 lit up. Also lights up 1 other line for the 2 right?

Not saying this is easy but it is simple.
Screenshot

Now for the next to last step we remove the 2 slow lines for the 2 leaving only the 2 fast 1c lines. One each for the 2 and 9

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by RichieP

Now for the next to last step we remove the 2 slow lines for the 2 leaving only the 2 fast 1c lines. One each for the 2 and 9

Now the final step EXACTLY like we did with the opening race to this thread:

Looking at the 1c pace of race and positioning WHO will get the lead AND be in his comfort zone??

It is right there.

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by RichieP

Now the final step EXACTLY like we did with the opening race to this thread:

Looking at the 1c pace of race and positioning WHO will get the lead AND be in his comfort zone??

It is right there.

The 9 will be ahead of the 2 from the time the gate pops ( check the "Br" positions ).

The 9 is a fighter while the 2 needs an open lead to win at the 1c. See it? So automatically we KNOW he ain't getting THAT comfort zone in this matchup.

That relegates the 2 to Ote and he can NOT run like that and win. So he is removed as a contender for win. Leaves us 1 horse the #9 as the dominant early.

NOW bring in the FIGHTING personality traits he posesses into your head if you will.

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by RichieP

The 9 will be ahead of the 2 from the time the gate pops ( check the "Br" positions ).

That relegates the 2 to Ote and he can NOT run like that and win. So he is removed as a contender for win. Leaves us 1 horse the #9 as the dominant early.

NOW bring in the FIGHTING personality traits he posesses into your head if you will.

Here are the lines of the horses matching the 1c pace of the 9. Screenshot shows positioning at the 1c.

We also know the #9 is a full race fighter.

There is nobody even 2nd or 3rd to challenge him now that the #2 has been dismissed. THAT move is the key.

NOW who do you like when you see the shot?

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by RichieP

Here are the lines of the horses matching the 1c pace of the 9. Screenshot shows positioning at the 1c.

We also know the #9 is a full race fighter.

There is nobody even 2nd or 3rd to challenge him now that the #2 has been dismissed. THAT move is the key.

NOW who do you like when you see the shot?

That is a spot play lone early fighter. Found using a combo of BOTH positions and beaten lengths.

Also involves that 1-hd Fighting characteristic I mentioned at the very start of the "8 Month Update Thread".

That is also right from the Mind's Eye threads.

[shoeless]

Richie,That was great how you explained that and easy to comprehend with the examples.I see now where you say to match the earlies against each other to find out who is the best one.

Im also going to take your advice and Pino's as well and stop using computer programs and go back to just the DRF.I realize now that using these programs has not made me any better of a handicapper.You were right telling me that Jim Lehane's book was the best thing for me.I think using that with some of Taulbot[Pino's suggestion],match up and CJ numbers I will be better off.Thanks for your help.Jeff

By the way nice hit

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by shoeless

You were right telling me that Jim Lehane's book was the best thing for me.

Hey Jeff!
Now watch this. Peek at the pp's for the winning 9 horse when you can ok?
Then open up CH to the "Valuation" chapter and forgetting the ml shown let's make OUR fair value line for this horse.

He won that last mclm race at 4.4 to 1. Today he steps up to winners. So MY way of evaluating was to double his 4.4 odds to 8.8 to 1. Sound reasonable?

Now I factored in that he is lone early in THIS matchup PLUS a fighter of multi calls. I reduced that 8.8/1 to 6/1 because of these factors. JL stresses making REALISTIC lines. That 6/1 seemed more than reasonable to me.

At 2 mtp my 6/1 fair odds line buck was 9/1. There is the BET ME signal big bro.

That book is totally awesome. Greatest thing is one can use their own personal factors to create these lines.

You matchup horses use matchup stuff for the line making.
You use angles use angle stuff for line making.
You use trainer/class stuff use that for line making. Etc Etc

You will never need software or something to show you an odds line again.

[Charlie D]

Richie

Would i be right in saying #2 struggles when he has to run a 1c under 23

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

Richie

Would i be right in saying #2 struggles when he has to run a 1c under 23

Looking at the pp's Charlie hell yes you are right.

The 2 also shows fighting in 2 races at multi calls. Lines 4 and 6. 1c-2c in those races respectively are
23.4-46.3
23.4-46.5

The 9's multi call fight:
22.8-46.0

Not even close is it?