Contender Selection/Eliminations

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by J2EEDeveloper

In the first stage of race analysis, the color designations for top 3 are based on APV and CR. That immediately points out entries that may be glaringly deficient in this area (45%, 50%). Are there any generic guidelines for eliminations/contender designations at this point, using only the APV and CR?

Individual races vary, of course, but I am wondering if anyone has done any serious testing of the APV and CR designations. For example, how often does an entry with APV and or CPR 50% or less actually win? Or 60% or less? And how much confusion is introduced in the readouts by including such an entry as a contender?

Information, insights, suggestions, and ideas will be appreciated.
Thanks

Here are typical results for a year. APV "10" = Today's Purse

APV 1-7 (53,596 HORSES) (4731 WINNERS=9%) ($16.21 AVERAGE PRICE)
APV 8-15 (194,771 HORSES) (24,877 WINNERS=13%) ($12.05 AVERAGE PRICE)
APV 16-20 (29,519 HORSES) (4788 WINNERS=16%) ($9.79 AVERAGE PRICE)
APV 21-25 (10,210 HORSES) (1950 WINNERS=19%) ($8.92 AVERAGE PRICE)
APV >25 (8056 HORSES) (1628 WINNERS=20%) ($8.26 AVERAGE PRICE)

Naturally, first time starters without an APV are not included.

Hope this is helpful.