Contender Selection/Eliminations

[J2EEDeveloper]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

Here are typical results for a year. APV "10" = Today's Purse

APV 1-7 (53,596 HORSES) (4731 WINNERS=9%) ($16.21 AVERAGE PRICE)
APV 8-15 (194,771 HORSES) (24,877 WINNERS=13%) ($12.05 AVERAGE PRICE)
APV 16-20 (29,519 HORSES) (4788 WINNERS=16%) ($9.79 AVERAGE PRICE)
APV 21-25 (10,210 HORSES) (1950 WINNERS=19%) ($8.92 AVERAGE PRICE)
APV >25 (8056 HORSES) (1628 WINNERS=20%) ($8.26 AVERAGE PRICE)

Naturally, first time starters without an APV are not included.

Hope this is helpful.

That is extremely helpful. Thanks! Stated another way, 91% of entries with APV in the range 1-7 (10-70% of today's purse) failed to win. I know there are always exceptions, but I have a very strong feeling that they would be in the 6-7 range, rather than 5 or lower.

APV is seriously tweaked (especially in East) by state-bred bonuses, and is not as useful as it may once have been as a standalone factor. However, in combination with the CR, it may be useful in contender selection.

Again, thank you for the information.